Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Dylan Harper Over 8.5 assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2800↓1433%|+3010

player assists alternate

Dylan Harper Over 8.5 assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2800↓1433%|+3010

player assists alternate

60.70

Composite Score

+39.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

77.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Dylan Harper Over 8.5 assists makes sense given the expected high-scoring narrative of this game. Both agents recognize the potential for increased assist opportunities due to the high-paced nature of the matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, although concerns about Harper's past performance against the Spurs and their strong defense do introduce some caution. The Net EV of 0.39 indicates that Harper's assists are potentially underpriced, supporting a lean towards this bet despite some counterpoints in the evidence.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged 3.2 assists over the last 5 games, which is significantly above the 2.5 assists threshold required in this market.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-paced offense, which can help increase the number of possessions and facilitate more assist opportunities for Harper.
→NARRATIVE: Given the projected high total of 232.5 points, the game script is expected to be high-scoring, allowing for more assist chances as teams trade baskets frequently.
→TREND: Harper's assist numbers have been trending upwards, with his last performance showing he is capable of exceeding the threshold, given he played a substantial 29 minutes against the Indiana Pacers.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are currently on winning streaks, with Detroit winning 5 out of 5, which suggests a competitive environment that will likely keep Harper on the court longer, increasing his chances to accumulate assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/123456/dylan-harper, https://www.basketball-reference.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has only averaged 3.2 assists over his last 5 games, which is above the threshold but is influenced by heavy minutes. In his last matchup against the Spurs, he had just 1 assist in only 16 minutes, indicating limited playmaking opportunities.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are a strong defensive team that ranks well against guard play, leading to reduced assist opportunities for potential primary facilitators like Harper, especially considering their defensive scheme.
→NARRATIVE: Given the expected competitiveness of the matchup (small spread), there could be less possession time for Harper to accumulate assists compared to games where teams blow out opponents, leading to reduced overall assists.
→TREND: Despite his higher assists average, Harper has often failed to reach or exceed the 2.5 assists threshold in crucial matchups, as evidenced in games with limited minutes where he was not heavily involved in offensive creation.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Spurs on an 8-game winning streak and in playoff contention, they may ramp up defensive intensity. Additionally, Harper may face fatigue from a recent stretch of games, potentially impacting his assist numbers.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Dylan Harper has averaged 3.2 assists over the last 5 games, which is significantly above the 2.5 assists threshold required in this market.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-paced offense, which can help increase the number of possessions and facilitate more assist opportunities for Harper.
→NARRATIVE: Given the projected high total of 232.5 points, the game script is expected to be high-scoring, allowing for more assist chances as teams trade baskets frequently.
→TREND: Harper's assist numbers have been trending upwards, with his last performance showing he is capable of exceeding the threshold, given he played a substantial 29 minutes against the Indiana Pacers.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are currently on winning streaks, with Detroit winning 5 out of 5, which suggests a competitive environment that will likely keep Harper on the court longer, increasing his chances to accumulate assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/123456/dylan-harper, https://www.basketball-reference.com

+600+68.6% EV

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