Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Stephon Castle Over 12.5 assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2600↓1957%|+2740

player assists alternate

Stephon Castle Over 12.5 assists alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2600↓1957%|+2740

player assists alternate

61.50

Composite Score

+40.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

80.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this game between the Spurs and Pistons, the expected narrative suggests a high-paced matchup due to both teams' playoff contention and recent winning streaks, which will likely lead to increased opportunities for assists. Stephon Castle's recent performance trend, averaging 6.4 assists over his last five games, indicates he is in form, supporting the feasibility of hitting the Over on 12.5 assists. The Net EV (0.41) reflects that while there are some concerns about matchups against a strong Spurs defense, the overall game context and pace still present a viable opportunity for Castle to exceed the assists line given the high scoring outlook.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle is averaging 6.4 assists per game over his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 3.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a higher offensive pace, which is likely to lead to more opportunities for assists in a high-scoring game with a total of 232.5.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams in playoff contention, this matchup is expected to be competitive, keeping starters in the game longer and increasing assist opportunities for Castle.
→TREND: Castle's recent performance shows an upward trend in assists, going from an average of 4.1 assists per game earlier in the season to 6.4 in his last games.
→SITUATIONAL: Both the Spurs and Pistons are on winning streaks (Spurs 8, Pistons 5), which typically leads to players performing at their best due to increased confidence and momentum.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Despite averaging 6.4 assists over the last 5 games, Castle's assists can fluctuate significantly depending on game flow and usage, which may not translate against a strong defensive team like the Spurs.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have been performing well defensively, currently sitting at a 40-16 record with a streak of 8 wins, indicating they can limit opposing players' production, specifically assists.
→NARRATIVE: The game's high total of 232.5 suggests a fast pace, but it may lead to a reliance on scoring ability over playmaking, potentially decreasing Castle's assist opportunities.
→TREND: In Castle's past games against the Spurs, he averaged 2 assists per game, indicating he has historically struggled to distribute effectively against this specific opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are playing the Spurs, both playoff contenders, which often results in intense, closely contested games, leading to fewer possessions and scoring opportunities for individual players like Castle.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Stephon Castle is averaging 6.4 assists per game over his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 3.5 assists threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a higher offensive pace, which is likely to lead to more opportunities for assists in a high-scoring game with a total of 232.5.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams in playoff contention, this matchup is expected to be competitive, keeping starters in the game longer and increasing assist opportunities for Castle.
→TREND: Castle's recent performance shows an upward trend in assists, going from an average of 4.1 assists per game earlier in the season to 6.4 in his last games.
→SITUATIONAL: Both the Spurs and Pistons are on winning streaks (Spurs 8, Pistons 5), which typically leads to players performing at their best due to increased confidence and momentum.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN

+600+68.6% EV

De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2400+66.9% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV

Stephon Castle Over 1.5 steals alternate💤

+194+44.8% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 17.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+44.0% EV