Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 10.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+205↑89%|-1595

player points alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 10.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+205↑89%|-1595

player points alternate

27.10

Composite Score

-11.0%

Net EV

35.00

Narrative Fit

34.80

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Julian Champagnie Over 10.5 points does not align with the expected game script. Although the projected high-scoring environment could suggest opportunities for scoring, the strong defensive capabilities of the Spurs and Champagnie's recent performance trends indicate a struggle for consistent output, especially against a top-tier defense. With a final Net EV of -0.11, indicating that the market has priced this wager correctly, it makes sense to pass on this bet.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.2 points over his last five games, with a recent increase in his scoring potential as reflected in his 3PM/game of 2.8 and high 3P% of 44.5%.
→MATCHUP: The game total of 232.5 indicates a high-scoring matchup, suggesting that Champagnie will have more opportunities to score points against the Detroit Pistons.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread of just -1.5 for the Pistons, a closely contested game is expected, leading to more minutes for Champagnie and potential for increased scoring.
→TREND: Champagnie has shown a recent trend of increasing minutes, playing 29+ minutes in three of his last five games, which correlates with increased scoring opportunities.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, creating a competitive atmosphere that will likely result in starters receiving significant minutes, thus boosting Champagnie's scoring chances.

Thesis: moderate

Market: agree

Sources: source_url_1, source_url_2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has an average of only 12.2 points per game over the last five games, which is significantly below the 19.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive record, currently positioned as the 2nd seed, implying they can limit opposing players' scoring, particularly against less established scorers like Champagnie.
→NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be closely contested given the small spread of 1.5, which could lead to limited scoring opportunities for Champagnie if he doesn't play a pivotal role.
→TREND: Champagnie has not exceeded 19.5 points in any of his last five games, reinforcing a trend of underperformance relative to this points total.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are on an eight-game winning streak and have no significant injuries, likely resulting in a tight game where scoring opportunities may be distributed less favorably for Champagnie.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: data not available

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 12.2 points over his last five games, with a recent increase in his scoring potential as reflected in his 3PM/game of 2.8 and high 3P% of 44.5%.
→MATCHUP: The game total of 232.5 indicates a high-scoring matchup, suggesting that Champagnie will have more opportunities to score points against the Detroit Pistons.
→NARRATIVE: With the spread of just -1.5 for the Pistons, a closely contested game is expected, leading to more minutes for Champagnie and potential for increased scoring.
→TREND: Champagnie has shown a recent trend of increasing minutes, playing 29+ minutes in three of his last five games, which correlates with increased scoring opportunities.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, creating a competitive atmosphere that will likely result in starters receiving significant minutes, thus boosting Champagnie's scoring chances.

Thesis: moderate

Market: agree

Sources: source_url_1, source_url_2

+680+71.7% EV

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