Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 5.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2900↓353%|+2260

player threes alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 5.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2900↓353%|+2260

player threes alternate

73.30

Composite Score

+59.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

75.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Julian Champagnie going Over 5.5 three-pointers in a high-scoring game makes sense due to the fast-paced matchup projected between the Spurs and Pistons, evidenced by the high game total of 232.5. Champagnie’s impressive shooting form at 44.5% from beyond the arc and his recent average of 2.8 threes over five games indicate he has the potential to exceed this threshold, especially in an intense and competitive environment where he is likely to play significant minutes. The Net EV of 0.60 further supports this bet, suggesting that the market has undervalued Champagnie's scoring capabilities in this favorable context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has a solid 3PM average of 2.8 over the last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 0.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The high game total of 232.5 indicates a fast-paced game, which typically leads to more scoring opportunities, benefiting shooters like Champagnie.
→NARRATIVE: The close point spread of -1.5 suggests a competitive game, thereby increasing the likelihood that Champagnie will play significant minutes and take more shot attempts, particularly from three-point range.
→TREND: Champagnie is currently shooting an impressive 44.5% from beyond the arc over his last 5 games, showcasing his current form as an effective shooter.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, with the Spurs riding an 8-game win streak and the Pistons having won their last 5, leading to a higher-intensity game that often favors scoring and outside shooting.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has averaged 2.8 three-pointers made per game in his last 5 games, but this high average may not be sustainable against a strong defensive team like the Pistons.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons currently boast one of the top defenses in the league, which could limit Champagnie's opportunities to score threes, especially if they focus on defending the perimeter.
→NARRATIVE: Given that this game has a close spread (Pistons -1.5), it's likely to be a competitive environment where both teams may push for better shot selection rather than relying solely on three-pointers, which may lead to fewer attempts from outside.
→TREND: In tight games, Champagnie’s shooting can be inconsistent and may result in him not meeting this threshold as he could defer to other high-usage teammates in critical moments.
→SITUATIONAL: The matchup against a high-caliber team like the Pistons, who are on a winning streak, might lead to pressure situations that could cause Champagnie to play it safer rather than taking risky three-point shots.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has a solid 3PM average of 2.8 over the last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 0.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The high game total of 232.5 indicates a fast-paced game, which typically leads to more scoring opportunities, benefiting shooters like Champagnie.
→NARRATIVE: The close point spread of -1.5 suggests a competitive game, thereby increasing the likelihood that Champagnie will play significant minutes and take more shot attempts, particularly from three-point range.
→TREND: Champagnie is currently shooting an impressive 44.5% from beyond the arc over his last 5 games, showcasing his current form as an effective shooter.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, with the Spurs riding an 8-game win streak and the Pistons having won their last 5, leading to a higher-intensity game that often favors scoring and outside shooting.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+680+71.7% EV

Tobias Harris Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

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Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate💤

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Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate💤

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