Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+400↑5%|-20

player points alternate

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+400↑5%|-20

player points alternate

62.60

Composite Score

+27.3%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

87.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points makes sense as both agents highlight a high-scoring environment against the Detroit Pistons, whose games suggest increased scoring opportunities. Harris has recently demonstrated scoring consistency, and with no injuries reported, he is likely to play a significant role in this competitive matchup. The positive Net EV of 0.27 indicates that the market may underestimate his potential output, providing value in this wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over his last 5 games, significantly surpassing the threshold of 7.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-scoring tendency, reflected in their game total of 232.5, which typically leads to more opportunities for players like Harris to score.
→NARRATIVE: Given the small spread of -1.5 in this matchup, the game is expected to be competitive, increasing the likelihood of Harris playing significant minutes and thus scoring more points.
→TREND: Harris has been consistent in his scoring, with only one game in the last five where he did not achieve double-digit points, further indicating his scoring capability.
→SITUATIONAL: The absence of any reported injuries for Harris and the Pistons' winning momentum (5-game win streak) suggest the team is functioning at a high level, allowing for more aggressive offensive play and likely higher individual scoring.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over the last five games, but he recently scored only 5 points in a game against the Pistons, showcasing the potential for low output against their defense.
→MATCHUP: Harris’s position in the forward role may face strong defensive pressure from the Pistons' solid frontline, limiting his scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be competitive, Tobias Harris could see reduced shot attempts if other players like Joel Embiid dominate the ball, hindering him from exceeding the 7.5 points threshold.
→TREND: Over the past five games against the Pistons, Harris has an average of only 5 points per game against them, indicating a historical struggle to score against this specific matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The high-stakes nature of this game may lead to tighter defense and a slower pace, reducing overall scoring opportunities for Harris, particularly when combined with the recent eight-game winning streak of the Spurs that pressures players to elevate their game.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over his last 5 games, significantly surpassing the threshold of 7.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a high-scoring tendency, reflected in their game total of 232.5, which typically leads to more opportunities for players like Harris to score.
→NARRATIVE: Given the small spread of -1.5 in this matchup, the game is expected to be competitive, increasing the likelihood of Harris playing significant minutes and thus scoring more points.
→TREND: Harris has been consistent in his scoring, with only one game in the last five where he did not achieve double-digit points, further indicating his scoring capability.
→SITUATIONAL: The absence of any reported injuries for Harris and the Pistons' winning momentum (5-game win streak) suggest the team is functioning at a high level, allowing for more aggressive offensive play and likely higher individual scoring.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+2000+44.1% EV

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 threes alternate💤

+1060+34.6% EV

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 threes alternate💤

+775+32.4% EV

Ron Holland Over 14.5 points alternate💤

+1040+27.3% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

+405+26.2% EV