Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 7.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+680↑55%|-820

player rebounds alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 7.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+680↑55%|-820

player rebounds alternate

74.00

Composite Score

+71.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

90.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In what is expected to be a high-scoring game with a total set at 232.5, Julian Champagnie has favorable conditions to exceed the 7.5 rebounds mark against the Detroit Pistons, who struggle with offensive rebounding. His trend of consistent performance, with recent games showing at least 4 rebounds, combined with a competitive matchup that should allow him ample playing time, supports this wager. The Net EV of 0.72 indicates a strong belief that this bet is underpriced by the bookmaker, enhancing confidence in the projected outcomes.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie averaged 6.0 rebounds over his last 5 games, easily surpassing the 2.5 rebounds threshold, showcasing his consistent rebounding ability.
→MATCHUP: The matchup against the Detroit Pistons is favorable, as they are ranked poorly in offensive rebounding, which creates more opportunities for Champagnie to secure boards.
→NARRATIVE: Given the 'high-scoring expected' environment with a game total of 232.5, there will likely be more shot opportunities and rebound chances for both teams throughout the game.
→TREND: In his last five games, Champagnie has consistently recorded at least 4 rebounds, demonstrating a solid trend of performance that suggests he can reach the over on this line.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 indicates a likely competitive game where starters will play significant minutes, allowing Champagnie to accumulate more rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com, https://www.espn.com/nba/

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Despite averaging 6.0 rebounds in the last 5 games, his performance has shown inconsistency, with only 4 rebounds against the Cleveland Cavaliers, a game where he played 35 minutes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are ranked in the middle tier for defensive rebounding, suggesting the potential for fewer rebounding opportunities for Champagnie against their frontcourt.
→NARRATIVE: The game context indicates a high-scoring environment (total set at 232.5), which often leads to quicker possessions that can limit rebound opportunities, particularly for perimeter players like Champagnie.
→TREND: In the last five games, Champagnie has shown a rebound total below 2.5 in two instances, indicating a pattern of volatility that makes exceeding this threshold less likely.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams performing well and on winning streaks, the game's competitiveness may lead to fewer minutes for Champagnie if he struggles early or if the game does not stay close.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie averaged 6.0 rebounds over his last 5 games, easily surpassing the 2.5 rebounds threshold, showcasing his consistent rebounding ability.
→MATCHUP: The matchup against the Detroit Pistons is favorable, as they are ranked poorly in offensive rebounding, which creates more opportunities for Champagnie to secure boards.
→NARRATIVE: Given the 'high-scoring expected' environment with a game total of 232.5, there will likely be more shot opportunities and rebound chances for both teams throughout the game.
→TREND: In his last five games, Champagnie has consistently recorded at least 4 rebounds, demonstrating a solid trend of performance that suggests he can reach the over on this line.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 indicates a likely competitive game where starters will play significant minutes, allowing Champagnie to accumulate more rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com, https://www.espn.com/nba/

+1340+69.1% EV

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