Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1600↓135%|+920

player threes alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1600↓135%|+920

player threes alternate

63.70

Composite Score

+42.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

87.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In a high-scoring matchup with a game total of 232.5, Julian Champagnie has favorable conditions to exceed 4.5 three-pointers made. The Detroit Pistons' defensive focus on the paint opens up more opportunities for outside shooters, and Champagnie’s recent form, coupled with increased court time due to the competitive nature of the game, further solidifies the expectation for him to connect on his threes. Given the agents' analyses, the Net EV of 0.42 indicates that the market has undervalued this bet, supporting a strong play on this line.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 2.8 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, which comfortably exceeds the 0.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons allow a higher number of three-pointers per game as they focus on defending the paint, providing Champagnie with ample opportunity for outside shooting.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 232.5, the high-scoring nature expected in this matchup suggests more possessions, increasing the likelihood for Champagnie to hit his three-pointer.
→TREND: Champagnie's recent form includes a 3-point shooting percentage of 44.5%, reflecting his current shooting ability and reaffirming his likelihood to exceed 0.5 threes.
→SITUATIONAL: The small spread of 1.5 indicates a potential close game, which should keep Champagnie on the court for extended minutes, further increasing his chances to make at least one three-pointer.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has averaged 2.8 three-pointers made in the last 5 games, but given the Spurs' strong defensive capabilities, this could be significantly challenged.
→MATCHUP: The Pistons have a disciplined defense that may limit open shots, which is crucial for a shooter like Champagnie who thrives on catching and shooting opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be competitive given the close spread of -1.5, both teams will likely prioritize defensive strategies, reducing scoring chances, including threes.
→TREND: Despite his recent good shooting percentage from three (44.5%), on a larger scale, he has been inconsistent in previous games where he was also expected to shoot well, often failing to meet expectations.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the high stakes of this game, both teams will likely play starters heavy minutes, but the increased pressure can negatively impact shooting consistency, especially for players like Champagnie in high-pressure scenarios.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging 2.8 three-pointers made per game over his last 5 games, which comfortably exceeds the 0.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons allow a higher number of three-pointers per game as they focus on defending the paint, providing Champagnie with ample opportunity for outside shooting.
→NARRATIVE: With a game total of 232.5, the high-scoring nature expected in this matchup suggests more possessions, increasing the likelihood for Champagnie to hit his three-pointer.
→TREND: Champagnie's recent form includes a 3-point shooting percentage of 44.5%, reflecting his current shooting ability and reaffirming his likelihood to exceed 0.5 threes.
→SITUATIONAL: The small spread of 1.5 indicates a potential close game, which should keep Champagnie on the court for extended minutes, further increasing his chances to make at least one three-pointer.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+680+71.7% EV

Julian Champagnie Over 5.5 threes alternate💤

+2900+59.8% EV

Tobias Harris Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2000+44.1% EV

Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate💤

+290+43.5% EV

Caris LeVert Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2600+42.9% EV