Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 8.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1260↓527%|+1059

player rebounds alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 8.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1260↓527%|+1059

player rebounds alternate

64.50

Composite Score

+40.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

90.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Expecting a competitive and high-scoring matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, Julian Champagnie has a solid opportunity to exceed 8.5 rebounds given the game's pace and his recent rebounding trends. While there are concerns about his volatility and the Spurs' defensive rebounding, the high total of 232.5 suggests more possessions and opportunities for rebounds, justifying a lean on this bet. The Net EV of 0.41 supports that the market may not fully appreciate Champagnie's potential given the game's context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has averaged 6.0 rebounds over his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 2.5 rebound mark, which indicates he is in good form for rebounding.
→MATCHUP: The game features two high-scoring teams with a total set at 232.5, suggesting an uptempo pace that typically leads to more rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With a close spread of -1.5 in this matchup, the game is likely to remain competitive, resulting in starters playing heavy minutes, which benefits Champagnie's chances to accumulate rebounds.
→TREND: Champagnie has consistently hit 6 or more rebounds in 3 of the last 5 games, showcasing his ability to perform when given the opportunity.
→SITUATIONAL: No injuries reported for either team means both teams will field their best players, increasing the intensity and pace of the game, further supporting more rebounding chances for Champagnie.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Despite averaging 6.0 rebounds over the last five games, Julian Champagnie has shown volatility, with his rebounds fluctuating between 4 and 8, indicating a risk of not surpassing 2.5 in any given game.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs' pace is faster than the Pistons, which could lead to more possessions overall, but defensively, the Spurs are allowing fewer rebounds, suggesting that Champagnie may struggle to collect boards against their current form.
→NARRATIVE: With a competitive spread of only 1.5 points and a high-total game expected (232.5), the likelihood of a concentrated game performance could limit Champagnie’s opportunities for rebounds, especially if possessions dwindle late in a close contest.
→TREND: Champagnie has logged 23.6 minutes per game this season, which is on the lower side considering his recent performance, indicating potential for reduced court time in crucial moments that stifle his rebound totals.
→SITUATIONAL: Being part of a high-caliber matchup (both teams with winning records) often results in tight rotations and a focus on defense, likely leading to fewer rebounding chances for Champagnie compared to other games.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has averaged 6.0 rebounds over his last 5 games, significantly exceeding the 2.5 rebound mark, which indicates he is in good form for rebounding.
→MATCHUP: The game features two high-scoring teams with a total set at 232.5, suggesting an uptempo pace that typically leads to more rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With a close spread of -1.5 in this matchup, the game is likely to remain competitive, resulting in starters playing heavy minutes, which benefits Champagnie's chances to accumulate rebounds.
→TREND: Champagnie has consistently hit 6 or more rebounds in 3 of the last 5 games, showcasing his ability to perform when given the opportunity.
→SITUATIONAL: No injuries reported for either team means both teams will field their best players, increasing the intensity and pace of the game, further supporting more rebounding chances for Champagnie.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

+680+71.7% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1340+69.1% EV

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+490+62.7% EV

Julian Champagnie Over 5.5 threes alternate💤

+2900+59.8% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV