SAL 9000
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Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 assists alternate

๐Ÿš€ Asymmetric Shot
+420โ†“316%|+614
player assists alternate

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 assists alternate

๐Ÿš€ Asymmetric Shot
+420โ†“316%|+614
player assists alternate
59.00
Composite Score
+20.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence

๐Ÿงช SAL's Synthesis

The game between the Spurs and Pistons is expected to be high-paced, which enhances Tobias Harris's assist potential given more possessions. His recent form shows he has recorded at least 2 assists in 3 of his last 5 games, supporting the likelihood of him exceeding the line of 3.5 assists. The Net EV of 0.20 reflects a slight underpricing by the bookmaker, suggesting that there's enough of an edge to consider this wager, despite some competitive elements that could limit his opportunities.

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 2.2 assists per game this season, exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold comfortably.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The Spurs rank in the middle of the league in assists allowed per game, providing a favorable environment for Harris to find opportunities to distribute the ball.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, the expected fast pace of this matchup suggests more possessions, allowing for greater assist potential for Harris.
  • โ†’TREND: Harris has recorded 2 or more assists in 3 of his last 5 games, showing a positive trend that supports hitting the over on 1.5 assists.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: The game spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 suggests a competitive matchup, likely keeping Harris on the court for extended minutes, which adds to his assist opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2

๐Ÿ”ด Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 2.2 assists per game, which is just slightly above the line, but in tighter games or against good defensive matchups, his assists could drop due to less ball distribution when playing alongside other high-usage teammates.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently on an eight-game winning streak and have a strong defensive unit, potentially putting more pressure on Harris and reducing his assist opportunities due to defensive schemes focused on limiting his contributions.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: In a matchup where the spread is small (-1.5 for the Pistons), the game is likely to be competitive, causing both teams to lock down defensively and limit overall scoring, which typically leads to fewer assists per player.
  • โ†’TREND: In the last 5 games against various teams, Harris has not consistently exceeded the 1.5 assist mark, indicating potential struggles in accumulating assists especially against stronger opposition like the Spurs.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: Tyler Harris is averaging around 31.6 minutes per game; however, there is a heightened risk of blowouts or limited rotations leading to decreased minutes if the game turn lopsided, which affects his ability to rack up assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 2.2 assists per game this season, exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold comfortably.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The Spurs rank in the middle of the league in assists allowed per game, providing a favorable environment for Harris to find opportunities to distribute the ball.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, the expected fast pace of this matchup suggests more possessions, allowing for greater assist potential for Harris.
  • โ†’TREND: Harris has recorded 2 or more assists in 3 of his last 5 games, showing a positive trend that supports hitting the over on 1.5 assists.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: The game spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5 suggests a competitive matchup, likely keeping Harris on the court for extended minutes, which adds to his assist opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2

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