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Tobias Harris Over 4.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2000↓92%|+960

player threes alternate

Tobias Harris Over 4.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+2000↓92%|+960

player threes alternate

63.00

Composite Score

+44.1%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Tobias Harris to hit Over 4.5 three-pointers has merit given the high-scoring game environment expected with a total of 232.5 points, which indicates multiple opportunities for shooting from beyond the arc. The matchup against the Spurs, who allow significant three-point attempts, along with Harris's recent trend of maintaining a reasonable shooting percentage, suggests he could exceed this mark despite some concerns about his consistency. The Net EV score of 0.44 reflects a slight undervaluation by the bookmakers, making this a favorable wager, albeit with some caution due to the opposing analysis on his potential performance.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: In Tobias Harris's last 5 games, he's averaging 1.0 three-pointer made per game, which indicates he is consistently hitting at least one three in recent performances.
→MATCHUP: The Pistons are facing the Spurs, who allow a significant number of three-point attempts and conversions, making it a favorable matchup for shooters like Harris.
→NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 232.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair, which often translates to more opportunities for three-point shooting.
→TREND: Harris has shown a positive trend in shooting, maintaining a 34.0% three-point percentage recently, aligning with his ability to exceed the 0.5 threes threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a 5-game winning streak and a competitive spread of only -1.5, this game is expected to remain close, providing Harris the needed minutes to likely make multiple three-point attempts.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available for sources

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged only 1.0 three-pointer made per game in his last five games but is shooting just 34.0% from three-point range, indicating inconsistency in hitting more than 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defensive unit, ranking among the top teams in limiting opposing three-point shooting, which puts Harris in a less favorable position to exceed his three-point mark.
→NARRATIVE: Given the game's projected high-scoring total of 232.5, there might be a focus on inside scoring rather than perimeter shooting, reducing Harris's chances to attempt and make multiple three-pointers.
→TREND: In his last five games against the Spurs, Harris has struggled to make a significant impact, particularly in scoring from beyond the arc, which reflects a trend of underperformance in this particular matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The game features two teams with strong playoff aspirations, meaning that both defenses might tighten as they battle for positioning, which often results in lower three-point efficiency for players like Harris.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: In Tobias Harris's last 5 games, he's averaging 1.0 three-pointer made per game, which indicates he is consistently hitting at least one three in recent performances.
→MATCHUP: The Pistons are facing the Spurs, who allow a significant number of three-point attempts and conversions, making it a favorable matchup for shooters like Harris.
→NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 232.5, suggesting a high-scoring affair, which often translates to more opportunities for three-point shooting.
→TREND: Harris has shown a positive trend in shooting, maintaining a 34.0% three-point percentage recently, aligning with his ability to exceed the 0.5 threes threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a 5-game winning streak and a competitive spread of only -1.5, this game is expected to remain close, providing Harris the needed minutes to likely make multiple three-point attempts.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: data not available for sources

+2900+59.8% EV

Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate💤

+290+43.5% EV

Caris LeVert Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2600+42.9% EV

Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate💤

+550+42.6% EV

Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

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