Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+500↓542%|+613

player assists alternate

Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+500↓542%|+613

player assists alternate

58.70

Composite Score

+21.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

82.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation for a high-scoring game with a total of 232.5 suggests plenty of possessions, which is a promising sign for Robinson's assist opportunities. While he has struggled recently, the likelihood of a competitive matchup against the Pistons, combined with the absence of injuries, means he should have more chances to distribute the ball. The positive Net EV of 0.21 indicates that the market may have underestimated his ability to exceed this assist threshold, making it worth considering.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson is averaging 2.4 assists per game this season, suggesting he has the ability to exceed 1.5 assists frequently.
→MATCHUP: The game has a high total of 232.5, indicating a high-scoring affair which typically leads to more possessions and opportunities for assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the tight spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, it is likely this game will be competitive, allowing Robinson to remain on the court longer, increasing his chances of dishing out assists.
→TREND: In his recent game against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson had a notable performance with multiple assists, indicating he can replicate this success against the same opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams have no injuries reported, suggesting full strength, and with the recent strong winning streaks for both squads, the competitive nature is heightened, further emphasizing the likelihood of Robinson getting more assist opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's assists per game over the last five games is only 1.0, significantly under the threshold of 1.5 assists, suggesting he has struggled to distribute the ball effectively.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their solid defensive unit which can limit perimeter players like Robinson, making it harder for him to create assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of the game with both teams having strong records and high stakes, it is likely that the game will be tightly contested, which typically leads to star players dominating the ball and reducing assist opportunities for role players like Robinson.
→TREND: In his last five games, Robinson has consistently failed to reach the 1.5 assists mark, resulting in evident underperformance in this category which suggests a continued trend rather than a spike in production.
→SITUATIONAL: Considering both teams' high winning records and the pressure to perform, players may tighten up offensively in critical moments, which adversely affects assist totals, further diminishing Robinson's chances of exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson is averaging 2.4 assists per game this season, suggesting he has the ability to exceed 1.5 assists frequently.
→MATCHUP: The game has a high total of 232.5, indicating a high-scoring affair which typically leads to more possessions and opportunities for assists.
→NARRATIVE: Given the tight spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, it is likely this game will be competitive, allowing Robinson to remain on the court longer, increasing his chances of dishing out assists.
→TREND: In his recent game against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson had a notable performance with multiple assists, indicating he can replicate this success against the same opponent.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams have no injuries reported, suggesting full strength, and with the recent strong winning streaks for both squads, the competitive nature is heightened, further emphasizing the likelihood of Robinson getting more assist opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+600+68.6% EV

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