Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Over 11.5 points alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+188↑91%|-1912

player points alternate

Ausar Thompson Over 11.5 points alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+188↑91%|-1912

player points alternate

30.20

Composite Score

-4.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

24.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the final Net EV of -0.05, this bet on Ausar Thompson Over 11.5 points isn't justifiable. The Spurs have a strong defense which could limit Thompson's scoring opportunities, especially with tougher matchups expected due to their recent performance. Additionally, while Thompson has had decent scoring averages and potential minutes, the overall scenario of a tightly contested game could reduce his offensive output, making this a difficult bet to support.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.8 points over the last 5 games, but notably, he has a strong FG% of 53.5%, suggesting that when he is taking shots, he is efficient.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have recently demonstrated a high-scoring offense, with an average total points of 232.5 in their games, which can provide Thompson with ample opportunities to score.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread is close at -1.5 for the Pistons, the game is expected to be competitive. This means Thompson is likely to get significant playing time, possibly exceeding 30 minutes, which increases his scoring chances.
→TREND: In games where he has played 26 minutes or more, Thompson has shown the ability to produce offensively, which is critical as he logged 28 minutes in the last game against the Portland Trail Blazers and had a +11 +/-.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a 5-game winning streak, they will likely be generating a fast-paced environment. This pace can lead to increased possessions for both teams, enhancing Thompson's potential scoring opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 94%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson's verified average over the last 5 games is only 11.8 points, significantly below the 19.5 points threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Spurs are currently on an 8-game winning streak and rank among the league's top teams, which may lead to tougher defensive matchups that hinder Thompson's scoring.
→NARRATIVE: Given the tight spread of just -1.5 for the Pistons, the game is likely to remain competitive, potentially limiting Thompson's offensive opportunities if he doesn't perform in clutch moments.
→TREND: Thompson has shown limited offensive output recently, evident from the fact that he scored fewer than 12 points in the majority of his recent games and has yet to find consistency in his scoring.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs have a strong defensive unit and are not dealing with notable injuries, making it an unfavorable matchup for Thompson to exceed the 19.5-point mark, especially against a contending team.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged 11.8 points over the last 5 games, but notably, he has a strong FG% of 53.5%, suggesting that when he is taking shots, he is efficient.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have recently demonstrated a high-scoring offense, with an average total points of 232.5 in their games, which can provide Thompson with ample opportunities to score.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the spread is close at -1.5 for the Pistons, the game is expected to be competitive. This means Thompson is likely to get significant playing time, possibly exceeding 30 minutes, which increases his scoring chances.
→TREND: In games where he has played 26 minutes or more, Thompson has shown the ability to produce offensively, which is critical as he logged 28 minutes in the last game against the Portland Trail Blazers and had a +11 +/-.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a 5-game winning streak, they will likely be generating a fast-paced environment. This pace can lead to increased possessions for both teams, enhancing Thompson's potential scoring opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: slightly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

+1100+37.5% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 assists alternate💤

+800+37.0% EV

Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1280+36.2% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 2.5 blocks alternate💤

+940+28.8% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 assists alternate🚀

+586+26.3% EV