Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Over 2.5 blocks alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+940↓226%|+652

player blocks alternate

Ausar Thompson Over 2.5 blocks alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+940↓226%|+652

player blocks alternate

62.50

Composite Score

+28.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

85.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In a high-paced matchup against the Spurs, Ausar Thompson has significant opportunities to exceed the 2.5 blocks line, especially considering the Spurs' tendency to drive to the basket, creating more chances for him to contest shots. His recent upward trend against similar scoring offenses also supports the expectation that he can surpass his average. The Net EV score of 0.29 signals that this bet is potentially underpriced, making it a valuable opportunity.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson is averaging 0.7 blocks per game this season, and in his last five games, he has recorded 2.0 blocks against the Pistons previously, demonstrating a strong capability to exceed this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a tendency to drive to the basket, leading to more opportunities for Thompson to contest shots and accumulate blocks against their high-scoring offense.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be high-paced (total 232.5), this not only means more shot attempts but also gives Thompson more chances to block shots, increasing his likelihood of going over 0.5 blocks.
→TREND: Over the past five games, Thompson has averaged 1.2 blocks against teams with a similar scoring style, indicating he is trending upward in shot-blocking performance.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are currently on a winning streak and playing at home, which means a close and competitive game is on the horizon, likely resulting in Thompson receiving heavy minutes (22.5 avg), further boosting his chances to exceed 0.5 blocks.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson averages 0.7 blocks per game this season, but in his last five games, he has recorded zero blocks in 3 of those games, indicating a significant drop in shot-blocking activity.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are 40-16 and have an efficient offense which may result in fewer opportunities for Thompson to effectively contest shots, reducing his block chances.
→NARRATIVE: Given the high total of 232.5 for this game, the narrative suggests a fast-paced matchup which typically leads to more scoring and less emphasis on defensive stats like blocks.
→TREND: In the last five games, Thompson recorded 0 blocks against the Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks, teams that are not known for their shot-blocking but could highlight Thompson's struggles in this category.
→SITUATIONAL: Since this is a matchup against a strong offensive team like the Spurs, Thompson may be tasked primarily with scoring and rebounding duties rather than focusing on blocking shots.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson is averaging 0.7 blocks per game this season, and in his last five games, he has recorded 2.0 blocks against the Pistons previously, demonstrating a strong capability to exceed this threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a tendency to drive to the basket, leading to more opportunities for Thompson to contest shots and accumulate blocks against their high-scoring offense.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be high-paced (total 232.5), this not only means more shot attempts but also gives Thompson more chances to block shots, increasing his likelihood of going over 0.5 blocks.
→TREND: Over the past five games, Thompson has averaged 1.2 blocks against teams with a similar scoring style, indicating he is trending upward in shot-blocking performance.
→SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are currently on a winning streak and playing at home, which means a close and competitive game is on the horizon, likely resulting in Thompson receiving heavy minutes (22.5 avg), further boosting his chances to exceed 0.5 blocks.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+800+37.0% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 2.5 blocks alternate💤

+840+33.5% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 4.5 blocks alternate💤

+450+27.0% EV

Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 assists alternate🚀

+586+26.3% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 4.5 blocks alternate💤

+403+25.1% EV