SAL 9000
SAL 9000
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Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 assists alternate

πŸš€ Asymmetric Shot
+586↑14%|-94
player assists alternate

Ausar Thompson Over 5.5 assists alternate

πŸš€ Asymmetric Shot
+586↑14%|-94
player assists alternate
60.00
Composite Score
+26.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence

πŸ§ͺ SAL's Synthesis

The game between the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons is expected to be competitive with a fast pace, which creates an environment for Ausar Thompson to potentially exceed the assist threshold. While he has struggled recently to hit over 2.5 assists and has relatively low minutes, the Spurs' defense is conducive to open opportunities, suggesting that he could see an uptick in both usage and assist numbers. The Net EV of 0.26 indicates that the odds may not fully account for the possible impact of a close game and Thompson’s improving offensive role, making this a reasonable lean bet.

🟒 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

  • β†’STATS: In his last five games, Ausar Thompson has averaged 1.6 assists per game, but with an increased offensive workload, he can surpass 2.5 assists in this matchup.
  • β†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their fast-paced play, with a high total of 232.5 indicating plenty of scoring opportunities that can lead to increased assists for Thompson.
  • β†’NARRATIVE: A close spread of 1.5 suggests a competitive game where Thompson is likely to play significant minutes, supporting an environment conducive for him to exceed 2.5 assists.
  • β†’TREND: Over the last five games, Thompson has shown improvement in his involvement on offense, increasing his points per game to 11.8, indicating rising usage that could extend to assist production.
  • β†’SITUATIONAL: The current matchup against the Spurs, who have a defensive rating that allows for increased ball movement, combined with Thompson's ability to fill the stat sheet, increases the likelihood he will exceed the assists threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

πŸ”΄ Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

  • β†’STATS: Ausar Thompson has an average of only 2.3 assists per game for the season and recently averaged just 1.6 assists over the last 5 games, making it unlikely he will exceed 2.5 assists.
  • β†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their defensive efficiency, which could limit Thompson's opportunities to create assists, as they are ranked among the top defensive teams this season.
  • β†’NARRATIVE: With the game projected to be competitive, less time in garbage time will mean starters, including Thompson, will be playing fewer minutes, reducing his chances to tally assists.
  • β†’TREND: Ausar Thompson's recent performance shows a consistent underachievement in assists, falling short of 2.5 assists in four of his last five games, indicating a trend of underperformance in this category.
  • β†’SITUATIONAL: Thompson's 22.5 minutes per game is relatively low for a main ball handler, and with a small spread of -1.5 for the Pistons, there may be limited opportunities to boost his assist numbers.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, BasketballReference

🟒 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

  • β†’STATS: In his last five games, Ausar Thompson has averaged 1.6 assists per game, but with an increased offensive workload, he can surpass 2.5 assists in this matchup.
  • β†’MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their fast-paced play, with a high total of 232.5 indicating plenty of scoring opportunities that can lead to increased assists for Thompson.
  • β†’NARRATIVE: A close spread of 1.5 suggests a competitive game where Thompson is likely to play significant minutes, supporting an environment conducive for him to exceed 2.5 assists.
  • β†’TREND: Over the last five games, Thompson has shown improvement in his involvement on offense, increasing his points per game to 11.8, indicating rising usage that could extend to assist production.
  • β†’SITUATIONAL: The current matchup against the Spurs, who have a defensive rating that allows for increased ball movement, combined with Thompson's ability to fill the stat sheet, increases the likelihood he will exceed the assists threshold.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

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