Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
Tobias Harris Over 5.5 points alternate
💤 Noise Bet
-2500↑694%|-2921
player points alternate
Tobias Harris Over 5.5 points alternate
💤 Noise Bet
-2500↑694%|-2921
player points alternate
36.50
Composite Score
-34.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the Net EV of -0.35, this bet on Tobias Harris Over 5.5 points is overpriced according to the analysis. Both agents highlight that while Harris has scored well historically, the strong defense of the San Antonio Spurs and the competitive nature of the matchup could limit his scoring opportunities. This, coupled with the current odds and the narrative that suggests an intensified defensive game, indicates that the likelihood of Harris exceeding the point total is diminished.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over the last five games, well exceeding the 7.5 points threshold, indicating he is likely to score more than this mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are playing at home against the San Antonio Spurs, and historically, Tobias Harris performs well in high-scoring matchups, aligning with the game's total of 232.5.
- →NARRATIVE: The spread of only -1.5 for the Pistons suggests a competitive game, which means both teams, including Harris, will see significant playing time and opportunities to score.
- →TREND: Harris has consistent scoring momentum, averaging 13.7 points per game this season, which supports the likelihood he will exceed the established point total.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a 5-game winning streak and positioning as playoff contenders, there is additional motivation for players like Harris to step up and contribute, further increasing his odds of scoring over 7.5 points.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over the last five games, but his shots are not guaranteed, especially against a strong defensive team like the San Antonio Spurs.
- →MATCHUP: The Spurs are currently the 2nd seed in the West, holding a strong defensive rating which could limit Harris's scoring opportunities in a high-stakes game.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the small spread of only 1.5 points, projected game script suggests a close game where both teams' defenses will intensify, potentially stifling individual scoring.
- →TREND: In his last five games against the Spurs, Harris's scoring has not been consistent, averaging lower numbers in critical situations against a tough opponent.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Pistons are on a five-game winning streak and are likely to rely on their primary scorers, reducing the focus on Harris, who could see fewer shot attempts in a winning context.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over the last five games, well exceeding the 7.5 points threshold, indicating he is likely to score more than this mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are playing at home against the San Antonio Spurs, and historically, Tobias Harris performs well in high-scoring matchups, aligning with the game's total of 232.5.
- →NARRATIVE: The spread of only -1.5 for the Pistons suggests a competitive game, which means both teams, including Harris, will see significant playing time and opportunities to score.
- →TREND: Harris has consistent scoring momentum, averaging 13.7 points per game this season, which supports the likelihood he will exceed the established point total.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Pistons on a 5-game winning streak and positioning as playoff contenders, there is additional motivation for players like Harris to step up and contribute, further increasing his odds of scoring over 7.5 points.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory
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