Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Over 17.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+486↑44%|-384

player points alternate

Duncan Robinson Over 17.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+486↑44%|-384

player points alternate

33.70

Composite Score

-0.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

3.10

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

While the pro agent highlights Duncan Robinson's previous success against the Pistons and the game's high-scoring environment, the anti agent's evidence of his current underperformance and the Spurs' defensive capabilities suggests a tougher matchup than anticipated. Given the Net EV of -0.01, the market appears to have priced the bet correctly, indicating no significant edge on either side makes this wager less appealing. The competitive nature of the game and Robinson's recent form create significant uncertainty regarding his scoring potential.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Although Duncan Robinson's season average is only 11 points per game, he has shown an ability to score significantly more against the Detroit Pistons, surpassing this threshold in previous matchups.
→MATCHUP: The fact that both teams are high-scoring, as indicated by a total of 232.5, suggests a conducive environment for Robinson to find open shots and capitalize on scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: The game's expected competitiveness, with a small spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, implies that both teams will play their starters for significant minutes, especially Robinson, which can bolster his scoring chances.
→TREND: In the last matchup against Detroit, Robinson scored 20 points, showing he has the capability to exceed the 19.5 points threshold when facing this team.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Detroit Pistons currently on a 5-game winning streak and looking to secure their playoff position, they are likely to play at a high pace, which can generate more possessions and scoring opportunities for Robinson.

Thesis: strong

Market: disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's season average is only 11.0 points per game, and in his last 5 games, he has only averaged 9.0 points, significantly below the 19.5 threshold.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have a strong defense, which limits opponents' scoring, making it difficult for Robinson to exploit matchups for high-scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: Given that both teams have high win percentages and are in playoff contention, this game is likely to be tightly contested, potentially leading to fewer scoring opportunities for Robinson.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Robinson has been inconsistent, failing to exceed 10 points in 3 of those games, showing a trend of underperformance.
→SITUATIONAL: The game is highly competitive, and with the close spread of only 1.5, it is unlikely that Robinson will receive additional minutes, especially if the game scenario requires defense over offense.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 25%

Evidence

→STATS: Although Duncan Robinson's season average is only 11 points per game, he has shown an ability to score significantly more against the Detroit Pistons, surpassing this threshold in previous matchups.
→MATCHUP: The fact that both teams are high-scoring, as indicated by a total of 232.5, suggests a conducive environment for Robinson to find open shots and capitalize on scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: The game's expected competitiveness, with a small spread of Detroit Pistons -1.5, implies that both teams will play their starters for significant minutes, especially Robinson, which can bolster his scoring chances.
→TREND: In the last matchup against Detroit, Robinson scored 20 points, showing he has the capability to exceed the 19.5 points threshold when facing this team.
→SITUATIONAL: With the Detroit Pistons currently on a 5-game winning streak and looking to secure their playoff position, they are likely to play at a high pace, which can generate more possessions and scoring opportunities for Robinson.

Thesis: strong

Market: disagree

Sources: url1, url2

+1100+37.5% EV

Duncan Robinson Over 5.5 assists alternate💤

+2500+27.9% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

+360+25.9% EV

Duncan Robinson Over 4.5 rebounds alternate💤

+700+21.6% EV

Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 assists alternate🚀

+500+21.5% EV