SAL 9000
SAL 9000
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Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate

๐Ÿš€ Asymmetric Shot
+360โ†“172%|+860
player points alternate

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate

๐Ÿš€ Asymmetric Shot
+360โ†“172%|+860
player points alternate
60.60
Composite Score
+25.9%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
82.50
Market Divergence

๐Ÿงช SAL's Synthesis

In the upcoming matchup between the Spurs and the Pistons, a high-scoring game is expected due to both teams' current offensive trends and the favorable scoring matchup for Tobias Harris against a susceptible Spurs defense. Despite concerns about Harris's recent performance, the betting odds show that he significantly exceeds the 19.5 points threshold often when given extended minutes in competitive situations, which aligns with the anticipated nature of the game. The Net EV score of 0.26 indicates that this wager is underpriced based on analysis, suggesting that the market hasn't fully accounted for Harris's scoring potential in this context.

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over his last 5 games, comfortably exceeding the 9.5 point threshold.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a higher average of points to forwards, giving Harris a favorable matchup to score effectively.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: With both teams trending towards a high-scoring game, as indicated by the total of 232.5, there should be plenty of opportunities for Harris to find scoring chances.
  • โ†’TREND: Harris has consistently hit the over on this points line, scoring well above 9.5 points in the majority of recent games, including a strong performance against the Pistons last time they faced each other.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: The competitive nature of this matchup, highlighted by the tight spread of 1.5, means that star players like Harris will likely see extended minutes, enhancing his chances to exceed his point total.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree

๐Ÿ”ด Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Tobias Harris has only averaged 13.8 points in his last five games, which shows he is capable of scoring above 9.5; however, his usage might be inconsistent based on game situation.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are currently ranked #1 in their division and possess a strong defensive team that could limit Harris's scoring opportunities.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of the game (Pistons -1.5), it's likely to be competitive, which could mean starters play extended minutes and fewer opportunities are available for scoring roles to secondary players like Harris.
  • โ†’TREND: In the last five games against the Pistons, Harris has struggled, with no significant offensive output against this team, evidenced by his 0 points in a past game with limited minutes, leading to questions about his scoring consistency.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks, but this scenario could lead to a more defensive battle; combined with the pressure of a playoff-seeding matchup, this factors against Harris exceeding 9.5 points.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2

๐ŸŸข Pro Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

  • โ†’STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 13.8 points over his last 5 games, comfortably exceeding the 9.5 point threshold.
  • โ†’MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, who allow a higher average of points to forwards, giving Harris a favorable matchup to score effectively.
  • โ†’NARRATIVE: With both teams trending towards a high-scoring game, as indicated by the total of 232.5, there should be plenty of opportunities for Harris to find scoring chances.
  • โ†’TREND: Harris has consistently hit the over on this points line, scoring well above 9.5 points in the majority of recent games, including a strong performance against the Pistons last time they faced each other.
  • โ†’SITUATIONAL: The competitive nature of this matchup, highlighted by the tight spread of 1.5, means that star players like Harris will likely see extended minutes, enhancing his chances to exceed his point total.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree

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