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Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+527↓444%|+680

player assists alternate

Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+527↓444%|+680

player assists alternate

55.30

Composite Score

+18.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

75.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Duncan Robinson's over 3.5 assists is a compelling wager considering the anticipated high-scoring affair with a total set at 232.5. The Detroit Pistons have shown a recent trend of allowing more assists, which aligns well with Robinson's ability to exceed this number, especially given his last performance against them where he logged 4 assists. The Net EV of 0.19 suggests that the market has underpriced this bet, with both agents identifying critical factors that support its viability in an expected fast-paced game.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson is averaging 2.4 assists per game this season, indicating he has the capability to exceed the threshold of 1.5.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have allowed an increasing number of assists to opponents lately as evidenced by their defensive stats, which could provide Robinson with more opportunities for assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 for this game, it is projected to be a high-scoring affair, likely resulting in more assists across the board due to increased possessions.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson registered 4 assists, showcasing his ability to excel against this team when given the minutes.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of -1.5 suggests a competitive game, ensuring Robinson will play significant minutes, enhancing his chances to log more assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's assists per game over the last five games is only 1.0, well below the 1.5 threshold, indicating a trend that makes exceeding this number unlikely.
→MATCHUP: Against a strong team like the Detroit Pistons, who hold a top defensive rating, Robinson may struggle to find opportunities for assists, as the Pistons are likely to focus on limiting ball movement.
→NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 232.5 and a competitive spread, there may be more focus on scoring rather than playmaking, which could limit Robinson's assist opportunities.
→TREND: In recent matchups against the Pistons, Robinson averaged only 1.0 assists, suggesting he's not a primary creator in those games and may not reach 1.5 assists this time.
→SITUATIONAL: Given the high context of the game and potential for limited minutes due to matchups on the floor, Robinson's role could diminish, further decreasing his chances to exceed 1.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson is averaging 2.4 assists per game this season, indicating he has the capability to exceed the threshold of 1.5.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have allowed an increasing number of assists to opponents lately as evidenced by their defensive stats, which could provide Robinson with more opportunities for assists.
→NARRATIVE: With a high total of 232.5 for this game, it is projected to be a high-scoring affair, likely resulting in more assists across the board due to increased possessions.
→TREND: In his last matchup against the Pistons, Robinson registered 4 assists, showcasing his ability to excel against this team when given the minutes.
→SITUATIONAL: The close spread of -1.5 suggests a competitive game, ensuring Robinson will play significant minutes, enhancing his chances to log more assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+600+68.6% EV

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