Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Over 4.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+700↓536%|+590

player rebounds alternate

Duncan Robinson Over 4.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+700↓536%|+590

player rebounds alternate

56.50

Composite Score

+21.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

75.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expectation is for a high-paced game given the total of 232.5, which should create more rebounding opportunities for Duncan Robinson. Although he has averaged only 2.3 rebounds this season, the game script, combined with his upward trend (hitting up to 7 rebounds in prior matchups against the Pistons), suggests he can exceed the 4.5 line in this matchup. The Net EV of 0.22 indicates that the market may have undervalued this bet, making it a solid opportunity.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 3.2 rebounds per game over his last 5 games, which is slightly above the 2.5 rebounds threshold needed to exceed this line.
→MATCHUP: In their last matchup against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson recorded 4 rebounds, showing he can perform well against this specific team.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the game has a high total of 232.5, there will likely be more possessions and missed shots, leading to more rebounding opportunities for Robinson.
→TREND: Robinson has shown an increasing trend in rebounds, hitting 7 rebounds in one of the earlier matchups against the Pistons, indicating he can elevate his performance when facing them.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams performing at a high level and close spread (Detroit -1.5), the game is expected to be competitive, meaning Robinson will likely see heavy minutes and more opportunities to grab rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's season average is 2.3 rebounds per game, which is below the 2.5 threshold, indicating his typical performance doesn't support exceeding this amount.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently one of the top rebounding teams, ranking favorably in both offensive and defensive rebounding, which could limit Robinson's opportunities on the boards.
→NARRATIVE: In a high-scoring game with a total of 232.5, the fast pace may lead to fewer rebounding opportunities for Robinson, as he is often involved in spacing the floor rather than crashing the boards.
→TREND: In his last five games, Robinson has only averaged 3.2 rebounds, but it's worth noting that his rebounds have fluctuated significantly, and inconsistent performance leads to doubt about reaching 2.5.
→SITUATIONAL: The game’s spread is tight with Detroit favored by just 1.5 points, suggesting a competitive, close game where both teams' starters may play heavy minutes, potentially pulling Robinson away from the rebounding position during crucial moments.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 60%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson has averaged 3.2 rebounds per game over his last 5 games, which is slightly above the 2.5 rebounds threshold needed to exceed this line.
→MATCHUP: In their last matchup against the Detroit Pistons, Robinson recorded 4 rebounds, showing he can perform well against this specific team.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the game has a high total of 232.5, there will likely be more possessions and missed shots, leading to more rebounding opportunities for Robinson.
→TREND: Robinson has shown an increasing trend in rebounds, hitting 7 rebounds in one of the earlier matchups against the Pistons, indicating he can elevate his performance when facing them.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams performing at a high level and close spread (Detroit -1.5), the game is expected to be competitive, meaning Robinson will likely see heavy minutes and more opportunities to grab rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+680+71.7% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1340+69.1% EV

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+490+62.7% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+390+47.7% EV