Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Daniss Jenkins Over 4.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+395↑54%|-455

player assists alternate

Daniss Jenkins Over 4.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+395↑54%|-455

player assists alternate

44.70

Composite Score

-5.9%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

29.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The bet on Daniss Jenkins Over 4.5 assists doesn't align well with the expected game script. While Jenkins has shown improvement in recent games, the substantial gap between his recent production and the required output of 5.5 assists, combined with the Pistons' effective defensive performance limiting opposing assists, suggests that he may struggle to reach this threshold. The final Net EV of -0.06 indicates that the market has priced this bet correctly, and therefore, this wager is not a strong play.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins has averaged 2.4 assists over his last 5 games, which is a significant improvement from his seasonal average of 0.4, showcasing a recent uptick in his playmaking ability.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs' offensive pace is likely to provide Jenkins with more opportunities to facilitate, especially against the Detroit Pistons who have been known for high-scoring games, as indicated by the total of 232.5.
→NARRATIVE: In a competitive matchup, Jenkins is expected to see increased minutes due to close spread, suggesting that he may play more than his average of 13 minutes per game, allowing for more potential assists opportunities.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Jenkins has demonstrated growth in various statistical categories, including improved assist numbers which indicate that he is becoming more involved in the offense.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are currently riding an 8-game win streak, contributing to a positive team momentum which could encourage Jenkins to take on a larger role as they continue to compete with the top teams, such as the Pistons.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 90%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins is averaging only 2.4 assists over his last 5 games, far below the 5.5 assists threshold, indicating a significant gap between his current production and the required output.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have shown to be effective defensively, currently holding a strong position with the best record in their division and limiting opposing assists, suggesting Jenkins will struggle to exceed his usual assist rate.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be closely contested (spread: Pistons -1.5), there’s a likelihood that Jenkins will play fewer minutes if the game turns into a close score, limiting his chances to accumulate assists.
→TREND: Jenkins has not reached the 5.5 assists mark in any of his last 5 games against the Pistons, indicating a consistent underperformance that may continue in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: Jenkins is averaging just 3.3 minutes per game this season, which severely restricts his opportunity to dish out assists, especially against a high-performing team like the Pistons.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN API, Feature Factory

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Daniss Jenkins has averaged 2.4 assists over his last 5 games, which is a significant improvement from his seasonal average of 0.4, showcasing a recent uptick in his playmaking ability.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs' offensive pace is likely to provide Jenkins with more opportunities to facilitate, especially against the Detroit Pistons who have been known for high-scoring games, as indicated by the total of 232.5.
→NARRATIVE: In a competitive matchup, Jenkins is expected to see increased minutes due to close spread, suggesting that he may play more than his average of 13 minutes per game, allowing for more potential assists opportunities.
→TREND: Over his last five games, Jenkins has demonstrated growth in various statistical categories, including improved assist numbers which indicate that he is becoming more involved in the offense.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are currently riding an 8-game win streak, contributing to a positive team momentum which could encourage Jenkins to take on a larger role as they continue to compete with the top teams, such as the Pistons.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

+600+68.6% EV

De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2400+66.9% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 17.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+44.0% EV

Stephon Castle Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+40.5% EV

Dylan Harper Over 8.5 assists alternate💤

+2800+39.3% EV