Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Jalen Duren Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+450↓350%|+630

player assists alternate

Jalen Duren Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+450↓350%|+630

player assists alternate

58.00

Composite Score

+19.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

82.50

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, a high-paced game is expected, as both teams are currently in winning form. Jalen Duren has shown the ability to facilitate opportunities, and despite his lower recent assist numbers, the Spurs' fast tempo should create additional chances for him to register assists. The Net EV of 0.20 indicates a favorable spot for this bet, reflecting that the market may be underestimating his potential to exceed the 3.5 assist line given the expected offensive environment.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren averages 2.7 assists per game this season, well above the 1.5 threshold, indicating he has the ability to surpass this mark.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs play at a high pace, ranked among the top in the league, likely providing more opportunities for Duren to facilitate and increase his assists.
→NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 232.5, a high-scoring affair is expected, which often results in increased assists as teams look to score quickly and often.
→TREND: Although Duren has averaged only 0.8 assists in his last five games, he has demonstrated the ability to produce assist numbers higher than 1.5 in a fast-paced game context.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks (Spurs w8, Pistons w5), suggesting a competitive matchup that could keep starters on the floor longer and increase Duren’s chances of dishing out assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 85%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren has averaged only 0.8 assists per game over his last five games, well below the 1.5 assist threshold needed to exceed.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are one of the top defensive teams in the league, which could further limit Duren's ability to create opportunities to pass.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams in good form and expected to rely heavily on their star players, Duren may not see the ball enough to reach 1.5 assists.
→TREND: Duren's recent performance has seen him register 0 assists in two of the last five games, indicating a worrying trend for this line.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are highly competitive, and with the close spread of only 1.5 points, it's likely to be a tight game that could limit Duren's playing time and involvement in ball movement.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren averages 2.7 assists per game this season, well above the 1.5 threshold, indicating he has the ability to surpass this mark.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs play at a high pace, ranked among the top in the league, likely providing more opportunities for Duren to facilitate and increase his assists.
→NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 232.5, a high-scoring affair is expected, which often results in increased assists as teams look to score quickly and often.
→TREND: Although Duren has averaged only 0.8 assists in his last five games, he has demonstrated the ability to produce assist numbers higher than 1.5 in a fast-paced game context.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are on winning streaks (Spurs w8, Pistons w5), suggesting a competitive matchup that could keep starters on the floor longer and increase Duren’s chances of dishing out assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+600+68.6% EV

De'Aaron Fox Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2400+66.9% EV

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+490+62.7% EV

Cade Cunningham Over 17.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+44.0% EV

Stephon Castle Over 12.5 assists alternate💤

+2600+40.5% EV