Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+490↓350%|+686

player rebounds alternate

Jalen Duren Over 14.5 rebounds alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+490↓350%|+686

player rebounds alternate

64.50

Composite Score

+62.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

90.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

With a game total set at 232.5, a high-scoring affair is expected, leading to more missed shots and consequently more rebounding opportunities for Jalen Duren. The favorable matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who are playing at a rapid pace, aligns well with Duren's need to exceed the 14.5 rebound threshold. The Net EV of 0.63 supports this bet as it indicates Duren's rebounds are underpriced by the bookmaker given his potential contributions in a competitive game.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game this season, which is significantly above the 9.5 threshold, demonstrating his capability to consistently grab boards.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have been a solid opponent, but their recent games suggest a rapid pace which can lead to more rebounding opportunities for Duren, especially with teams averaging high-scoring games against them.
→NARRATIVE: With a total set at 232.5, the expectation for a high-scoring game suggests more missed shots, leading to more rebound chances for both teams, particularly in a close match-up where both teams fight for every possession.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Duren has averaged 9.4 rebounds, nearly hitting the threshold, while also showing potential for higher rebound games, evidenced by his performance against the Pistons where he recorded 16 rebounds.
→SITUATIONAL: The small spread of -1.5 indicates a competitive match-up, which often leads to starters playing extended minutes, giving Duren the chance to rack up rebounds if the game is close till the end.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 0%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren's verified average rebounds over the last five games is 9.4, which is already below the threshold of 9.5.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are currently one of the top rebounding teams in the league; their strong frontcourt presence could limit Duren's rebounding opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With a close spread of just 1.5 points, the game is unlikely to become a blowout, thus potentially resulting in lower rebounding statistics for Duren as minutes could be limited.
→TREND: In Duren's last performance against the Spurs, he only managed 7 rebounds, indicating he has struggled against this specific team recently.
→SITUATIONAL: The Spurs are in excellent form with an 8-game winning streak, which may result in a fast-paced game, reducing Duren's potential to grab boards as the pace often leads to more shots and less rebounding opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 70%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Duren is averaging 10.3 rebounds per game this season, which is significantly above the 9.5 threshold, demonstrating his capability to consistently grab boards.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have been a solid opponent, but their recent games suggest a rapid pace which can lead to more rebounding opportunities for Duren, especially with teams averaging high-scoring games against them.
→NARRATIVE: With a total set at 232.5, the expectation for a high-scoring game suggests more missed shots, leading to more rebound chances for both teams, particularly in a close match-up where both teams fight for every possession.
→TREND: In his last 5 games, Duren has averaged 9.4 rebounds, nearly hitting the threshold, while also showing potential for higher rebound games, evidenced by his performance against the Pistons where he recorded 16 rebounds.
→SITUATIONAL: The small spread of -1.5 indicates a competitive match-up, which often leads to starters playing extended minutes, giving Duren the chance to rack up rebounds if the game is close till the end.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.nba.com

+680+71.7% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 17.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1340+69.1% EV

Stephon Castle Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+900+58.1% EV

Victor Wembanyama Over 14.5 rebounds alternate💤

+390+47.7% EV

Julian Champagnie Over 8.5 rebounds alternate💤

+1260+40.6% EV