Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Over 14.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+230— stable

player points alternate

Duncan Robinson Over 14.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+230— stable

player points alternate

31.50

Composite Score

+3.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

17.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Duncan Robinson Over 14.5 points makes sense given the expected high-scoring nature of the game against the Pistons, combined with the trend of Robinson historically performing well against them, as evidenced by his 21-point outing in their last matchup. The competitive spread also suggests that Robinson will likely get ample court time to reach this threshold, even though his recent averages are lower. The Net EV of 0.03 indicates that while this bet might not carry significant value, it reflects a slight edge that aligns with the favorable game script.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 55%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson is averaging 9.0 points in his last five games, but he has demonstrated the ability to score more consistently against the Pistons, particularly in their last matchup where he had 21 points in a 24-minute performance.
→MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 indicates a likely high-scoring game, creating more opportunity for Robinson to exceed the 14.5 points threshold, especially considering the pace and offensive capabilities of both teams.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 1.5, this game is expected to be competitive, likely keeping the starters, including Robinson, on the court for maximum minutes and allowing for increased scoring opportunities.
→TREND: While he is averaging only 9.0 points in the last five games, he has shown he can exceed this threshold during games against the Pistons, indicating a potential uptick in performance in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 5-game winning streak, which often leads to higher motivation and performance levels among players, including Robinson, as he tries to keep pace with his teammates and contribute to the team's success.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson's last 5 games show an average of only 9.0 points per game, which is significantly below the 14.5 points threshold, indicating a strong likelihood he won't reach that mark tonight.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons, Robinson's opponent, have a strong defensive scheme that can limit the effectiveness of shooters, particularly against high-performing teams like San Antonio, making it tougher for him to find open looks.
→NARRATIVE: The game is expected to be competitive with a tight spread, suggesting both teams will focus heavily on their primary scorers, likely reducing Robinson's opportunities to score as he plays a supporting role.
→TREND: In recent performances against teams with a strong record, Robinson has often struggled to exceed his scoring average, indicating a trend of underperformance against tougher competition.
→SITUATIONAL: With the high-stakes nature of this matchup between two top teams and no reported injuries, intensified defensive efforts are likely, which could further suppress Robinson’s scoring opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 55%

Evidence

→STATS: Duncan Robinson is averaging 9.0 points in his last five games, but he has demonstrated the ability to score more consistently against the Pistons, particularly in their last matchup where he had 21 points in a 24-minute performance.
→MATCHUP: The high total of 232.5 indicates a likely high-scoring game, creating more opportunity for Robinson to exceed the 14.5 points threshold, especially considering the pace and offensive capabilities of both teams.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 1.5, this game is expected to be competitive, likely keeping the starters, including Robinson, on the court for maximum minutes and allowing for increased scoring opportunities.
→TREND: While he is averaging only 9.0 points in the last five games, he has shown he can exceed this threshold during games against the Pistons, indicating a potential uptick in performance in this matchup.
→SITUATIONAL: The Detroit Pistons are on a 5-game winning streak, which often leads to higher motivation and performance levels among players, including Robinson, as he tries to keep pace with his teammates and contribute to the team's success.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

+1100+37.5% EV

Duncan Robinson Over 5.5 assists alternate💤

+2500+27.9% EV

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 points alternate🚀

+360+25.9% EV

Duncan Robinson Over 4.5 rebounds alternate💤

+700+21.6% EV

Duncan Robinson Over 3.5 assists alternate🚀

+500+21.5% EV