Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1060— stable

player threes alternate

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+1060— stable

player threes alternate

61.50

Composite Score

+34.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

80.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The game between the San Antonio Spurs and Detroit Pistons is expected to be high-scoring with a total set at 232.5, providing Tobias Harris with ample opportunities to hit over 3.5 three-pointers. Despite some concerns about Harris's recent shooting and San Antonio's defensive capabilities, the narrative of extended playing time and increased possession suggests he could exceed his average. The final EV score of 0.35 indicates that market pricing may not fully account for the favorable game context for his three-point shooting, making this a wise lean towards the Over.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 1.0 three-pointers made per game in his last five games, indicating he consistently exceeds the threshold of 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs' defense allows a high volume of three-point attempts, which should provide Harris with ample opportunities to make at least one three-pointer.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, promoting more three-point attempts across the board.
→TREND: The Detroit Pistons are on a five-game winning streak and playing with momentum, which may lead to accelerated pace and increased possessions, benefiting Harris' three-point opportunities.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are performing well, putting pressure on each other in a competitive matchup. The close spread suggests that starters will play extended minutes, further increasing Harris' chances to hit more than 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Harris is averaging only 1.0 three-pointer made per game over the last 5 games, but this is misleading as his three-point attempts may not increase against a strong defensive team like the Spurs.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their solid perimeter defense, making it difficult for opposing players, including Harris, to effectively shoot threes, which contributes to a lower likelihood of him exceeding 0.5 threes in this matchup.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of the game with a narrow spread of 1.5, it is likely that teams will focus on efficiency rather than shooting volume, which works against Harris exceeding his three-point total.
→TREND: In Harris's previous games against the Spurs, his three-point shooting has been limited, contributing to a trend of lower chalk-up games rather than exceeding such thresholds.
→SITUATIONAL: Harris's team, the Pistons, are on a five-game winning streak, which may lead to situations where their strategy emphasizes other scoring options rather than relying heavily on three-point shooting.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 1.0 three-pointers made per game in his last five games, indicating he consistently exceeds the threshold of 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs' defense allows a high volume of three-point attempts, which should provide Harris with ample opportunities to make at least one three-pointer.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, promoting more three-point attempts across the board.
→TREND: The Detroit Pistons are on a five-game winning streak and playing with momentum, which may lead to accelerated pace and increased possessions, benefiting Harris' three-point opportunities.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are performing well, putting pressure on each other in a competitive matchup. The close spread suggests that starters will play extended minutes, further increasing Harris' chances to hit more than 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+1540+57.7% EV

Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate💤

+290+43.5% EV

Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate💤

+550+42.6% EV

Julian Champagnie Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+1600+42.1% EV

Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate💤

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