Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+775↓241%|+1325

player threes alternate

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 threes alternate

💤 Noise Bet

+775↓241%|+1325

player threes alternate

61.50

Composite Score

+32.4%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

80.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

The expected high-scoring nature of the game between the Spurs and Pistons creates an environment where Tobias Harris is likely to see increased opportunities for three-point shots. With the Spurs allowing a high volume of three-point attempts and the momentum from the Pistons’ five-game winning streak, Harris has a solid chance to exceed 3.5 threes. The Net EV of 0.32 indicates that the market has undervalued this bet given the supporting factors, making it a worthwhile wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 1.0 three-pointers made per game in his last five games, indicating he consistently exceeds the threshold of 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs' defense allows a high volume of three-point attempts, which should provide Harris with ample opportunities to make at least one three-pointer.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, promoting more three-point attempts across the board.
→TREND: The Detroit Pistons are on a five-game winning streak and playing with momentum, which may lead to accelerated pace and increased possessions, benefiting Harris' three-point opportunities.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are performing well, putting pressure on each other in a competitive matchup. The close spread suggests that starters will play extended minutes, further increasing Harris' chances to hit more than 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Harris is averaging only 1.0 three-pointer made per game over the last 5 games, but this is misleading as his three-point attempts may not increase against a strong defensive team like the Spurs.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs are known for their solid perimeter defense, making it difficult for opposing players, including Harris, to effectively shoot threes, which contributes to a lower likelihood of him exceeding 0.5 threes in this matchup.
→NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of the game with a narrow spread of 1.5, it is likely that teams will focus on efficiency rather than shooting volume, which works against Harris exceeding his three-point total.
→TREND: In Harris's previous games against the Spurs, his three-point shooting has been limited, contributing to a trend of lower chalk-up games rather than exceeding such thresholds.
→SITUATIONAL: Harris's team, the Pistons, are on a five-game winning streak, which may lead to situations where their strategy emphasizes other scoring options rather than relying heavily on three-point shooting.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 1.0 three-pointers made per game in his last five games, indicating he consistently exceeds the threshold of 0.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs' defense allows a high volume of three-point attempts, which should provide Harris with ample opportunities to make at least one three-pointer.
→NARRATIVE: With a high game total of 232.5, the game is expected to be high-scoring, promoting more three-point attempts across the board.
→TREND: The Detroit Pistons are on a five-game winning streak and playing with momentum, which may lead to accelerated pace and increased possessions, benefiting Harris' three-point opportunities.
→SITUATIONAL: Both teams are performing well, putting pressure on each other in a competitive matchup. The close spread suggests that starters will play extended minutes, further increasing Harris' chances to hit more than 0.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

+2900+59.8% EV

Tobias Harris Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2000+44.1% EV

Harrison Barnes Under 0.5 threes alternate💤

+290+43.5% EV

Caris LeVert Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2600+42.9% EV

Keldon Johnson Over 2.5 threes alternate💤

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