Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+393↓297%|+592

player assists alternate

Tobias Harris Over 3.5 assists alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+393↓297%|+592

player assists alternate

58.90

Composite Score

+23.8%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

80.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

This bet on Tobias Harris Over 3.5 assists makes sense given the expected high-scoring nature of the matchup between the Spurs and Pistons, where increased possessions will likely lead to more assist opportunities for him. Harris has shown he can consistently reach and exceed 1.5 assists, and with both teams having strong records and a fast-paced play style, I expect him to facilitate more as the game remains competitive. The Net EV of 0.24 confidently indicates this bet is underpriced, reflecting a solid edge in this favorable context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 2.2 assists per game this season, exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold comfortably, showing a consistent ability to dish out assists.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, a team that tends to play at a fast pace, which would create more opportunities for Harris to generate assists due to increased possessions.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams having high game totals (232.5), it implies a high-scoring affair, keeping starters like Harris on the court longer to contribute to assists as the game remains competitive.
→TREND: Tobias Harris has consistently hit or exceeded the 1.5 assists mark in recent games, averaging 2.2 assists over his last five games, indicating a strong trend of facilitating plays.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that this matchup features two teams with high winning percentages and strong records (Detroit Pistons at 42-13 and San Antonio Spurs at 40-16), the game is likely to be closely contested, increasing minutes for Harris and supporting a higher assist figure.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris averages 2.2 assists per game, which is slightly above the 1.5 assists threshold, but recent performances show variability due to limited ball-handling responsibilities in a high-usage team.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons have a strong defense, ranking among the top in the league, which could pressure Harris and limit his opportunities to create assists, particularly against their primary defenders.
→NARRATIVE: In a closely contested match with a spread of only 1.5, there is a strong likelihood that stars will be engaged on both sides, leaving less room for Harris to facilitate and distribute the ball effectively.
→TREND: In the last five games, Harris's assist totals have been inconsistent, and he's only hit 2 assists per game in a favorable setup against weaker defenses, suggesting he's unlikely to exceed 1.5 in tougher matchups.
→SITUATIONAL: The game features two playoff contenders on a hot streak, meaning it is likely to be competitive, which often leads to tighter rotations and reduced assist opportunities for role players like Harris.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 75%

Evidence

→STATS: Tobias Harris has averaged 2.2 assists per game this season, exceeding the 1.5 assists threshold comfortably, showing a consistent ability to dish out assists.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons are facing the San Antonio Spurs, a team that tends to play at a fast pace, which would create more opportunities for Harris to generate assists due to increased possessions.
→NARRATIVE: With both teams having high game totals (232.5), it implies a high-scoring affair, keeping starters like Harris on the court longer to contribute to assists as the game remains competitive.
→TREND: Tobias Harris has consistently hit or exceeded the 1.5 assists mark in recent games, averaging 2.2 assists over his last five games, indicating a strong trend of facilitating plays.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that this matchup features two teams with high winning percentages and strong records (Detroit Pistons at 42-13 and San Antonio Spurs at 40-16), the game is likely to be closely contested, increasing minutes for Harris and supporting a higher assist figure.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

+600+68.6% EV

De'Aaron Fox Over 9.5 assists alternate💤

+630+58.6% EV

Tobias Harris Over 4.5 threes alternate💤

+2000+44.1% EV

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Tobias Harris Over 24.5 points alternate💤

+1100+37.5% EV