Back to San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons

Julian Champagnie Over 11.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+298↑85%|-1662

player points alternate

Julian Champagnie Over 11.5 points alternate

🚀 Asymmetric Shot

+298↑85%|-1662

player points alternate

31.10

Composite Score

-5.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

28.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the Net EV of -0.06, this bet is not a sound investment. While there is potential for Champagnie to score, with a high game total of 232.5 indicating offensive opportunities, the Spurs' defensive efficiency is likely to limit his production. Additionally, his recent inconsistency and role as a bench player raise concerns about him reaching the 19.5 points mark, suggesting that this bet is overpriced based on the evidence.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has averaged 12.2 points per game over the last 5 games, and has recently increased his scoring potential with a 3-point percentage of 44.5%, which enhances his chances of exceeding 19.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The game features a high total of 232.5, indicating a high-scoring affair where more possessions could lead to greater opportunities for Champagnie to score.
→NARRATIVE: As both teams are trending upwards with winning streaks, and the game is expected to be competitive (spread of only 1.5), Champagnie will likely see extended minutes and increased usage, enhancing his scoring potential.
→TREND: Champagnie has shown an upward trend in rebounds and assists, which suggests he's involved in more aspects of the game, creating additional opportunities for scoring as he is more integrated into offensive plays.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams placing in the top tier of their divisions and no reported injuries affecting Champagnie or major players, there is a strong likelihood that he will receive ample playing time in a meaningful game, maximizing his chance to exceed 19.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 95%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie is averaging only 12.2 points over his last five games, significantly below the threshold of 19.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The San Antonio Spurs have one of the league's better defensive records, ranking high in defensive efficiency, which could limit Champagnie's scoring opportunities.
→NARRATIVE: With the game expected to be closely contested (spread at 1.5), it may not provide the high-scoring environment necessary for Champagnie to reach the 19.5-point mark.
→TREND: In recent performances, Champagnie has not surpassed 19 points in any of his last five games, indicating a consistent struggle to score at a high level.
→SITUATIONAL: Champagnie is expected to play around 23-30 minutes as a bench player, and limited minutes are critical in ensuring he falls short of a high-scoring total.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Julian Champagnie has averaged 12.2 points per game over the last 5 games, and has recently increased his scoring potential with a 3-point percentage of 44.5%, which enhances his chances of exceeding 19.5 points.
→MATCHUP: The game features a high total of 232.5, indicating a high-scoring affair where more possessions could lead to greater opportunities for Champagnie to score.
→NARRATIVE: As both teams are trending upwards with winning streaks, and the game is expected to be competitive (spread of only 1.5), Champagnie will likely see extended minutes and increased usage, enhancing his scoring potential.
→TREND: Champagnie has shown an upward trend in rebounds and assists, which suggests he's involved in more aspects of the game, creating additional opportunities for scoring as he is more integrated into offensive plays.
→SITUATIONAL: With both teams placing in the top tier of their divisions and no reported injuries affecting Champagnie or major players, there is a strong likelihood that he will receive ample playing time in a meaningful game, maximizing his chance to exceed 19.5 points.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

+680+71.7% EV

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