Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Daniel Gafford double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+300— stable
player double double
Daniel Gafford double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+300— stable
player double double
44.00
Composite Score
-2.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
10.60
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the quantitative edge of -0.03, it's evident that the market has likely priced this wager correctly, making it a less appealing bet. While Gafford's recent playing minutes and the favorable rebounding matchup against the Mavericks provide some opportunity, his recent performance trend shows a lack of consistency in achieving a double-double, combined with Dallas's strong defensive capabilities against bigs. The slight negative EV suggests that the bet is overpriced relative to the actual likelihood of Gafford hitting this statistic.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford has averaged 7.0 rebounds per game over the last five games, which puts him in a strong position to secure double-digit rebounds in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are allowing a high number of rebounds per game which can play in Gafford's favor, as he can capitalize on second-chance opportunities and establish position in the paint.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 238.5 for the game, a high-scoring environment suggests more opportunities for Gafford to score and rebound, increasing his chances of achieving a double-double.
- →TREND: Gafford has shown the ability to gather significant rebounds against Dallas, averaging 6.5 rebounds in his last two games against the Mavericks, indicating he can replicate this performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford has been granted more playing time recently, averaging nearly 19 minutes in his last five games, which enhances his opportunity to gather both points and rebounds needed for a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford's recent averages show he is scoring only 10.2 points and grabbing 7.0 rebounds per game, meaning he consistently falls short of reaching the thresholds needed for a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are known for their strong defensive capabilities, particularly against bigs, which may limit Gafford's ability to score and rebound effectively during this game.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread set at -4.0 for the Mavericks and a high total of 238.5, the game is expected to remain competitive, reducing garbage time that could have otherwise allowed Gafford to pad stats.
- →TREND: Gafford has only achieved a double-double in one of the last five games, showing a concerning trend of underperformance despite playing significant minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford is averaging only 18.8 minutes over the last five games, a clear indication of limited time on the court, which significantly hampers his chances of acquiring the required points and rebounds for a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, NBA.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford has averaged 7.0 rebounds per game over the last five games, which puts him in a strong position to secure double-digit rebounds in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are allowing a high number of rebounds per game which can play in Gafford's favor, as he can capitalize on second-chance opportunities and establish position in the paint.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 238.5 for the game, a high-scoring environment suggests more opportunities for Gafford to score and rebound, increasing his chances of achieving a double-double.
- →TREND: Gafford has shown the ability to gather significant rebounds against Dallas, averaging 6.5 rebounds in his last two games against the Mavericks, indicating he can replicate this performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford has been granted more playing time recently, averaging nearly 19 minutes in his last five games, which enhances his opportunity to gather both points and rebounds needed for a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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