Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Naji Marshall double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+425— stable
player double double
Naji Marshall double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+425— stable
player double double
36.00
Composite Score
-0.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
0.20
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Dallas Mavericks is likely to unfold as a competitive matchup given the tight spread, but Naji Marshall's current production trends are concerning. He has consistently underperformed in terms of rebounds and assists, failing to meet the double-double threshold in recent games, including a disappointing performance versus the Mavericks. With a Net EV of -0.00, the evidence suggests that the market has accurately priced this bet, making it more prudent to avoid this wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Naji Marshall has averaged 15.6 points and 4.6 rebounds over his last five games, both of which are close to the double-double threshold when considering assists as well.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies are struggling defensively, which could allow Marshall to exploit mismatches and generate higher counting stats due to their recent inability to contain offensive players effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: In a high-total game environment (238.5), we can expect both teams to push the pace, leading to more shot opportunities, which increases the likelihood of Marshall reaching a double-double.
- →TREND: Marshall has seen an increase in minutes (32.2) over the last five games, which can directly correlate to more opportunities to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the tight spread of Dallas Mavericks -4.0, this game is likely to remain competitive, keeping the starters, including Marshall, on the court for extended periods and increasing the chances for him to land a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Naji Marshall's season averages show 4.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists, indicating he is consistently under the double-double threshold of 10 in any two categories.
- →MATCHUP: Naji Marshall had only 2.0 rebounds and no assists in his most recent matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, demonstrating unfavorable historical performance against this opponent.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Dallas Mavericks favored by 4 points, this could lead to a competitive game script where starters play heavy minutes, but Marshall's stats do not traditionally correlate with high-scoring or high-rebounding games.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Marshall has only achieved double-digit rebounds 1 time and double-digit assists 0 times, indicating a pattern of underperformance in contributing to a double-double.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Memphis Grizzlies are on a three-game losing streak, suggesting a struggling team environment, which often leads to lower overall team performance metrics, negatively impacting individual player stats like Marshall's.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Naji Marshall has averaged 15.6 points and 4.6 rebounds over his last five games, both of which are close to the double-double threshold when considering assists as well.
- →MATCHUP: The Memphis Grizzlies are struggling defensively, which could allow Marshall to exploit mismatches and generate higher counting stats due to their recent inability to contain offensive players effectively.
- →NARRATIVE: In a high-total game environment (238.5), we can expect both teams to push the pace, leading to more shot opportunities, which increases the likelihood of Marshall reaching a double-double.
- →TREND: Marshall has seen an increase in minutes (32.2) over the last five games, which can directly correlate to more opportunities to accumulate points, rebounds, and assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the tight spread of Dallas Mavericks -4.0, this game is likely to remain competitive, keeping the starters, including Marshall, on the court for extended periods and increasing the chances for him to land a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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