Back to Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Daniel Gafford double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+370— stable
player double double
Daniel Gafford double double
🚀 Asymmetric Shot
+370— stable
player double double
42.60
Composite Score
+1.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
3.80
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the slight positive Net EV of 0.01, it's clear the market has made some mispricing, but the evidence leans towards Gafford not being in a favorable position to achieve a double-double. His recent averages indicate he consistently falls short of the scoring threshold required while the Mavericks' strong defense may limit his scoring opportunities further. With the narrative balanced but ultimately slightly favoring the anti-agent's concerns, it’s prudent to pass on this wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford has averaged 7.0 rebounds per game over the last five games, which puts him in a strong position to secure double-digit rebounds in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are allowing a high number of rebounds per game which can play in Gafford's favor, as he can capitalize on second-chance opportunities and establish position in the paint.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 238.5 for the game, a high-scoring environment suggests more opportunities for Gafford to score and rebound, increasing his chances of achieving a double-double.
- →TREND: Gafford has shown the ability to gather significant rebounds against Dallas, averaging 6.5 rebounds in his last two games against the Mavericks, indicating he can replicate this performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford has been granted more playing time recently, averaging nearly 19 minutes in his last five games, which enhances his opportunity to gather both points and rebounds needed for a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford's recent averages show he is scoring only 10.2 points and grabbing 7.0 rebounds per game, meaning he consistently falls short of reaching the thresholds needed for a double-double.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are known for their strong defensive capabilities, particularly against bigs, which may limit Gafford's ability to score and rebound effectively during this game.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread set at -4.0 for the Mavericks and a high total of 238.5, the game is expected to remain competitive, reducing garbage time that could have otherwise allowed Gafford to pad stats.
- →TREND: Gafford has only achieved a double-double in one of the last five games, showing a concerning trend of underperformance despite playing significant minutes.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford is averaging only 18.8 minutes over the last five games, a clear indication of limited time on the court, which significantly hampers his chances of acquiring the required points and rebounds for a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: ESPN, NBA.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Daniel Gafford has averaged 7.0 rebounds per game over the last five games, which puts him in a strong position to secure double-digit rebounds in this matchup.
- →MATCHUP: The Dallas Mavericks are allowing a high number of rebounds per game which can play in Gafford's favor, as he can capitalize on second-chance opportunities and establish position in the paint.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total of 238.5 for the game, a high-scoring environment suggests more opportunities for Gafford to score and rebound, increasing his chances of achieving a double-double.
- →TREND: Gafford has shown the ability to gather significant rebounds against Dallas, averaging 6.5 rebounds in his last two games against the Mavericks, indicating he can replicate this performance.
- →SITUATIONAL: Gafford has been granted more playing time recently, averaging nearly 19 minutes in his last five games, which enhances his opportunity to gather both points and rebounds needed for a double-double.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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