Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
OG Anunoby Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+148— stable
player threes
OG Anunoby Under 1.5 threes
💤 Noise Bet
+148— stable
player threes
29.80
Composite Score
+7.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
28.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, OG Anunoby's consistent struggles in three-point shooting, with an average of just 18.8% over the last five games and limited shot opportunities due to the Knicks' strong perimeter defense, suggest he will likely fail to make 1.5 threes. The game's projected low-scoring nature, indicated by the 218.5 total, aligns with fewer offensive chances for Anunoby. The positive Net EV of 0.07 reflects that the market may not have fully priced in these factors, leading to an underpriced bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: OG Anunoby's recent 3-point shooting percentage is a mere 18.8% over his last 5 games, which significantly undercuts his chances of hitting 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The New York Knicks are known for their strong perimeter defense, which adds pressure on shooters, making it more difficult for Anunoby to convert from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 218.5 and the large spread of 8.5 suggest that the Bucks may struggle offensively, leading to fewer possessions and shot opportunities for Anunoby to make threes.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Anunoby has consistently underperformed in terms of made three-pointers, averaging less than 1 three made per game.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Bucks' recent winning streak, the momentum is with them, which could mean Anunoby will have fewer shot opportunities as the game develops, particularly if it becomes a blowout.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com/, https://www.espn.com/nba/
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: OG Anunoby has been playing 35.4 minutes per game over the last five games, indicating heavy usage, which correlates with increased opportunities to make three-pointers.
- →MATCHUP: The New York Knicks have been weak at defending the perimeter, giving up more open looks for three-point shooters, which directly benefits Anunoby's shooting chances.
- →NARRATIVE: With a total set at 218.5, this game is expected to be moderately high-scoring, providing an environment where Anunoby could capitalize on more offensive possessions.
- →TREND: Anunoby has seen a drop in shooting percentage, but his did attempt 2.5 three-pointers per game recently, indicating he's still actively seeking those shots.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are in a favorable position after winning their last two games, which may lead to a competitive atmosphere, encouraging higher scoring with Anunoby as a key contributor.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: OG Anunoby's recent 3-point shooting percentage is a mere 18.8% over his last 5 games, which significantly undercuts his chances of hitting 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The New York Knicks are known for their strong perimeter defense, which adds pressure on shooters, making it more difficult for Anunoby to convert from beyond the arc.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total of 218.5 and the large spread of 8.5 suggest that the Bucks may struggle offensively, leading to fewer possessions and shot opportunities for Anunoby to make threes.
- →TREND: Over the last 5 games, Anunoby has consistently underperformed in terms of made three-pointers, averaging less than 1 three made per game.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Bucks' recent winning streak, the momentum is with them, which could mean Anunoby will have fewer shot opportunities as the game develops, particularly if it becomes a blowout.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.basketball-reference.com/, https://www.espn.com/nba/
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