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Ryan Rollins Under 2.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

-114— stable

player threes

Ryan Rollins Under 2.5 threes

💤 Noise Bet

-114— stable

player threes

30.30

Composite Score

+7.5%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

30.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In the matchup between the Knicks and Bucks, I lean towards betting on Ryan Rollins to go Under 2.5 made threes. The expected blowout scenario with the Bucks favored by 8.5 points suggests reduced minutes and scoring opportunities for Rollins. Coupled with the Bucks' solid perimeter defense and Rollins’ recent struggles against them, the evidence points towards a game that may not favor him exceeding this mark. The Net EV of 0.08 indicates a slight edge, suggesting the market may have overlooked these factors.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Ryan Rollins has only averaged 1.6 made threes over the last 5 games, significantly below the 2.5 threshold, making it unlikely he will exceed this mark.
→MATCHUP: The Bucks are known for their strong perimeter defense, which will likely challenge Rollins' shot opportunities and percentage from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With the predicted spread of +8.5 in favor of the Bucks, it is likely the game will be a blowout, resulting in Rollins potentially playing fewer minutes and having reduced scoring opportunities.
→TREND: In his previous matchups against the Bucks, he has struggled to find his rhythm from three-point range, failing to exceed 2.5 threes in past games against them.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the game total is relatively low at 218.5, this could lead to fewer overall possessions, diminishing the chances for Rollins to reach or exceed 2.5 made threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 10%

Evidence

→STATS: Ryan Rollins is averaging 14.4 points per game and has a solid 38.8% shooting percentage from beyond the arc over his last five games, which indicates he is a capable shooter likely to exceed 2.5 threes.
→MATCHUP: The game total is set at 218.5, indicating a high-scoring affair, which generally benefits three-point shooters as they get more opportunities in fast-paced games.
→NARRATIVE: Given that the Milwaukee Bucks scored well against the New York Knicks in their prior matchups, it is likely that Rollins will have additional chances to shoot from beyond the arc in this game.
→TREND: In recent matchups against the Bucks, Rollins has been particularly productive, averaging more minutes (31.6) and overall scoring output, suggesting he will have enough opportunities to hit the over on threes.
→SITUATIONAL: The Bucks are on a slight win streak, while the Knicks are coming off a loss. This dynamic can generate a competitive atmosphere, resulting in a need for Rollins to contribute heavily, enhancing his shot attempts and probability of exceeding 2.5 threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Ryan Rollins has only averaged 1.6 made threes over the last 5 games, significantly below the 2.5 threshold, making it unlikely he will exceed this mark.
→MATCHUP: The Bucks are known for their strong perimeter defense, which will likely challenge Rollins' shot opportunities and percentage from beyond the arc.
→NARRATIVE: With the predicted spread of +8.5 in favor of the Bucks, it is likely the game will be a blowout, resulting in Rollins potentially playing fewer minutes and having reduced scoring opportunities.
→TREND: In his previous matchups against the Bucks, he has struggled to find his rhythm from three-point range, failing to exceed 2.5 threes in past games against them.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that the game total is relatively low at 218.5, this could lead to fewer overall possessions, diminishing the chances for Rollins to reach or exceed 2.5 made threes.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2