Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks

Landry Shamet Under 1.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

+110— stable

player rebounds

Landry Shamet Under 1.5 rebounds

💤 Noise Bet

+110— stable

player rebounds

30.20

Composite Score

+7.7%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

29.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the expected game script where the Knicks may struggle against the Bucks' strong interior defense, Landry Shamet is likely to see limited opportunities to grab rebounds. The evidence supports a scenario where Shamet's rebounding average falls below 1.5 due to both matchup limitations and potential reduced playing time if the Knicks are trailing. The Net EV of 0.08 indicates the bet is underpriced, reinforcing the belief that the market has not fully considered these matchups and game context.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Landry Shamet's recent rebounding average is only 1.8 rebounds per game, placing him below the 1.5 threshold needed to exceed in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are known for their strong interior defense, specifically with players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, limiting opportunities for perimeter players like Shamet to secure rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 8.5 points in favor of the Knicks, this game could lead to a one-sided contest where Shamet may play limited minutes if his team is trailing or does not require heavy contributions.
→TREND: In Shamet's last five games, he has recorded two games with 0 rebounds, indicating inconsistency in his rebounding performance and an overall struggle to hit the 1.5 mark consistently.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are currently on a one-game losing streak, which could lead to tighter rotations and reduced minutes for players like Shamet, further complicating his chances of exceeding 1.5 rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, Basketball Reference

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 20%

Evidence

→STATS: Landry Shamet has averaged 1.8 rebounds over his last 5 games, which places him above the 1.5 rebound threshold.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks' recent stretch of games indicates a faster pace, likely allowing Shamet more opportunities to grab rebounds due to increased possessions.
→NARRATIVE: Given the spread of 8.5 points, this game could stay competitive, leading to more minutes for Shamet and subsequently more chances for him to secure rebounds.
→TREND: Shamet has shown a positive trend in his rebounding, recording 3 rebounds against the Knicks recently, indicating he has the potential to exceed the line in similar matchups.
→SITUATIONAL: The game total of 218.5 suggests a high-scoring affair, which typically leads to more rebound opportunities for players, favoring the likelihood that Shamet will get over 1.5 rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 35%

Evidence

→STATS: Landry Shamet's recent rebounding average is only 1.8 rebounds per game, placing him below the 1.5 threshold needed to exceed in this matchup.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are known for their strong interior defense, specifically with players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, limiting opportunities for perimeter players like Shamet to secure rebounds.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 8.5 points in favor of the Knicks, this game could lead to a one-sided contest where Shamet may play limited minutes if his team is trailing or does not require heavy contributions.
→TREND: In Shamet's last five games, he has recorded two games with 0 rebounds, indicating inconsistency in his rebounding performance and an overall struggle to hit the 1.5 mark consistently.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are currently on a one-game losing streak, which could lead to tighter rotations and reduced minutes for players like Shamet, further complicating his chances of exceeding 1.5 rebounds.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: ESPN, Basketball Reference