Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Mitchell Robinson Under 7.5 rebounds
💤 Noise Bet
+102— stable
player rebounds
Mitchell Robinson Under 7.5 rebounds
💤 Noise Bet
+102— stable
player rebounds
34.40
Composite Score
+11.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
41.90
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this matchup, it's expected that the Knicks may struggle to keep pace with the Bucks, possibly resulting in a blowout scenario that limits Robinson's minutes on the court. Given his susceptibility to not exceeding 7.5 rebounds in games where he plays limited minutes and the presence of a strong Bucks frontcourt, it's reasonable to anticipate Robinson falling short of this mark. The Net EV of 0.11 reflects that the market has undervalued this bet, making the Under a solid choice.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Mitchell Robinson's recent average of 8.8 rebounds per game is misleading as it includes games where he played significantly more minutes; in his last game against the Knicks, he only recorded 5 rebounds in 19 minutes.
- →MATCHUP: The Bucks have a strong frontcourt with effective rebounders, which may limit Robinson's opportunities to secure boards, particularly when matched up against players like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread being at +8.5 for the Bucks, they are expected to be behind, potentially leading to a game script where the Knicks could dominate and limit Robinson's court time in a blowout scenario.
- →TREND: Robinson's performance has shown inconsistency; in games where he did not play over 20 minutes, he has regularly failed to reach the 7.5-rebound mark, suggesting he does not have the minute volume to overtake this threshold consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the game total is relatively low at 218.5, this suggests a more defensive approach which typically leads to fewer rebounding opportunities. Additionally, playing away against the Bucks might introduce fatigue and travel issues that could impact performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Mitchell Robinson has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game in his last five games, significantly exceeding the 7.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are 3rd in the league in rebounding percentage, which suggests a competitive battle for boards, providing Robinson ample opportunities to secure rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Milwaukee Bucks +8.5, the game is expected to remain competitive, which typically results in starters like Robinson playing more minutes and increasing their statistical contributions.
- →TREND: Over his last five games, Robinson has recorded double-digit rebounds in 2 out of 5 games, indicating potential to reach or surpass the 7.5 rebounds mark consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are coming off a loss and will likely have heightened motivation to perform, which could see Robinson logging more minutes on the court, further increasing his chances to exceed 7.5 rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Mitchell Robinson's recent average of 8.8 rebounds per game is misleading as it includes games where he played significantly more minutes; in his last game against the Knicks, he only recorded 5 rebounds in 19 minutes.
- →MATCHUP: The Bucks have a strong frontcourt with effective rebounders, which may limit Robinson's opportunities to secure boards, particularly when matched up against players like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread being at +8.5 for the Bucks, they are expected to be behind, potentially leading to a game script where the Knicks could dominate and limit Robinson's court time in a blowout scenario.
- →TREND: Robinson's performance has shown inconsistency; in games where he did not play over 20 minutes, he has regularly failed to reach the 7.5-rebound mark, suggesting he does not have the minute volume to overtake this threshold consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the game total is relatively low at 218.5, this suggests a more defensive approach which typically leads to fewer rebounding opportunities. Additionally, playing away against the Bucks might introduce fatigue and travel issues that could impact performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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