Back to New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks
Mitchell Robinson Under 7.5 rebounds
💤 Noise Bet
+100— stable
player rebounds
Mitchell Robinson Under 7.5 rebounds
💤 Noise Bet
+100— stable
player rebounds
33.80
Composite Score
+10.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
40.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Mitchell Robinson is expected to struggle to hit the 7.5 rebound mark against a strong Bucks frontcourt, especially with the game projected to be competitive as indicated by the spread of +8.5 for the Bucks. His recent inconsistency, coupled with limited court time in potential blowout scenarios and a low game total of 218.5, suggests that he may not secure enough rebounds. The Net EV of 0.11 reinforces the belief that this bet is underpriced by the bookmaker, making this a solid wager.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Mitchell Robinson's recent average of 8.8 rebounds per game is misleading as it includes games where he played significantly more minutes; in his last game against the Knicks, he only recorded 5 rebounds in 19 minutes.
- →MATCHUP: The Bucks have a strong frontcourt with effective rebounders, which may limit Robinson's opportunities to secure boards, particularly when matched up against players like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread being at +8.5 for the Bucks, they are expected to be behind, potentially leading to a game script where the Knicks could dominate and limit Robinson's court time in a blowout scenario.
- →TREND: Robinson's performance has shown inconsistency; in games where he did not play over 20 minutes, he has regularly failed to reach the 7.5-rebound mark, suggesting he does not have the minute volume to overtake this threshold consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the game total is relatively low at 218.5, this suggests a more defensive approach which typically leads to fewer rebounding opportunities. Additionally, playing away against the Bucks might introduce fatigue and travel issues that could impact performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Mitchell Robinson has averaged 8.8 rebounds per game in his last five games, significantly exceeding the 7.5 threshold.
- →MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks are 3rd in the league in rebounding percentage, which suggests a competitive battle for boards, providing Robinson ample opportunities to secure rebounds.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Milwaukee Bucks +8.5, the game is expected to remain competitive, which typically results in starters like Robinson playing more minutes and increasing their statistical contributions.
- →TREND: Over his last five games, Robinson has recorded double-digit rebounds in 2 out of 5 games, indicating potential to reach or surpass the 7.5 rebounds mark consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are coming off a loss and will likely have heightened motivation to perform, which could see Robinson logging more minutes on the court, further increasing his chances to exceed 7.5 rebounds.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Mitchell Robinson's recent average of 8.8 rebounds per game is misleading as it includes games where he played significantly more minutes; in his last game against the Knicks, he only recorded 5 rebounds in 19 minutes.
- →MATCHUP: The Bucks have a strong frontcourt with effective rebounders, which may limit Robinson's opportunities to secure boards, particularly when matched up against players like Giannis Antetokounmpo.
- →NARRATIVE: With the spread being at +8.5 for the Bucks, they are expected to be behind, potentially leading to a game script where the Knicks could dominate and limit Robinson's court time in a blowout scenario.
- →TREND: Robinson's performance has shown inconsistency; in games where he did not play over 20 minutes, he has regularly failed to reach the 7.5-rebound mark, suggesting he does not have the minute volume to overtake this threshold consistently.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that the game total is relatively low at 218.5, this suggests a more defensive approach which typically leads to fewer rebounding opportunities. Additionally, playing away against the Bucks might introduce fatigue and travel issues that could impact performance.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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