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Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes

🧠 Conviction Bet

-130— stable

player threes

Jalen Brunson Over 2.5 threes

🧠 Conviction Bet

-130— stable

player threes

48.50

Composite Score

+6.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

20.90

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, Jalen Brunson's Over 2.5 three-pointers makes sense given the high-scoring expectation and his substantial playing time, which is expected to provide ample shooting opportunities. Despite concerns about his recent efficiency, the favorable game script involving a projected close contest and the Bucks' weaker defensive efficiency against perimeter shooters tips the balance toward a positive outcome for this wager. The Net EV of 0.06 indicates that this bet is slightly underpriced in the market, reflecting an advantageous position to take this wager.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Brunson has been averaging 31.0 points per game over the last 5 games, and with a 3P% of 35.7%, it suggests an upward trend in his long-range shooting ability that is critical for exceeding 2.5 three-pointers made.
→MATCHUP: The Knicks are facing the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank lower in defensive efficiency, giving Brunson higher opportunities to convert his three-point attempts.
→NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 218.5, we anticipate a relatively high-scoring game, increasing the likelihood that Brunson will have more chances to shoot threes.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Brunson has consistently played significant minutes, averaging 38.2 minutes, which translates to greater opportunities to shoot and make three-pointers.
→SITUATIONAL: With the spread at Milwaukee Bucks +8.5, there may be a competitive game atmosphere leading to potential close game scenarios that encourage Brunson to take more shots, including from beyond the arc.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Brunson's recent 3-point shooting percentage is only 35.7% over the last 5 games, suggesting difficulty in consistently hitting 3-pointers.
→MATCHUP: The Milwaukee Bucks have a strong defensive presence, particularly against perimeter shooters, which may limit Brunson’s opportunities to make three-pointers.
→NARRATIVE: With a high spread of 8.5 points favoring the Bucks, a potential blowout could lead to Brunson playing fewer minutes and hence fewer shot attempts from three.
→TREND: Brunson has averaged just 2.2 made three-pointers in his last 5 games, which is below the 2.5 threshold.
→SITUATIONAL: The Knicks are coming off a loss and may focus more on defensive strategies in a difficult away game, potentially reducing Brunson's shooting opportunities.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Jalen Brunson has been averaging 31.0 points per game over the last 5 games, and with a 3P% of 35.7%, it suggests an upward trend in his long-range shooting ability that is critical for exceeding 2.5 three-pointers made.
→MATCHUP: The Knicks are facing the Milwaukee Bucks, who rank lower in defensive efficiency, giving Brunson higher opportunities to convert his three-point attempts.
→NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 218.5, we anticipate a relatively high-scoring game, increasing the likelihood that Brunson will have more chances to shoot threes.
→TREND: Over the last 5 games, Brunson has consistently played significant minutes, averaging 38.2 minutes, which translates to greater opportunities to shoot and make three-pointers.
→SITUATIONAL: With the spread at Milwaukee Bucks +8.5, there may be a competitive game atmosphere leading to potential close game scenarios that encourage Brunson to take more shots, including from beyond the arc.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2