Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Payton Pritchard Over 6.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1440↓146%|+4540
player threes alternate
Payton Pritchard Over 6.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1440↓146%|+4540
player threes alternate
51.20
Composite Score
+50.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In a high-paced game against a struggling Brooklyn Nets team, Payton Pritchard is likely to see ample playing time to contribute to the Celtics' scoring efforts. With a significant spread of -18, it's expected that the Celtics will dominate early, allowing Pritchard to get the opportunity to hit multiple three-pointers if given consistent minutes. The Net EV of 0.51 reflects a solid belief that the bookmakers have undervalued this specific prop bet, showing that making a wager here aligns well with the anticipated game narrative.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 97%
Evidence
- →STATS: Payton Pritchard has a 3P percentage of 31.0% over the last 5 games, indicating he is capable of hitting the occasional three, especially within a limited threshold of 0.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are facing the Brooklyn Nets, who have a poor record (15-43), suggesting that the Celtics may run away with the game, leading to ample scoring opportunities for bench players like Pritchard.
- →NARRATIVE: In a game with a spread of 18 points in favor of the Celtics, Payton Pritchard is likely to see extended minutes in a competitive first half and potentially score a three-pointer due to the offensive rhythm of the team.
- →TREND: Pritchard has been averaging 32.2 minutes per game in his last 5 outings, demonstrating that he is likely to be on the court for significant stretches, increasing his chances of making at least one three-pointer.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics coming off a loss and in a strong position within the playoff race, they will likely aim for a decisive victory against a struggling opponent, which could lead to Pritchard contributing to the scoreboard later in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Payton Pritchard has shot only 31.0% from three-point range in his last 5 games, which indicates difficulty in making shots from beyond the arc.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets, although struggling this season, have players who can effectively contest outside shots, potentially limiting Pritchard's open looks.
- →NARRATIVE: Due to the large spread of -18.0, there is a high risk of a blowout, which may result in Pritchard being pulled early if the Celtics build a substantial lead, limiting his opportunities to shoot.
- →TREND: In his last 5 games, Pritchard has averaged only 0.4 three-pointers made per game, suggesting he has underperformed in this statistic recently.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Celtics come off a loss and may want to play their starters more strategically to avoid injury, leading to fewer minutes for Pritchard and limiting his chances to exceed 0.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 97%
Evidence
- →STATS: Payton Pritchard has a 3P percentage of 31.0% over the last 5 games, indicating he is capable of hitting the occasional three, especially within a limited threshold of 0.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are facing the Brooklyn Nets, who have a poor record (15-43), suggesting that the Celtics may run away with the game, leading to ample scoring opportunities for bench players like Pritchard.
- →NARRATIVE: In a game with a spread of 18 points in favor of the Celtics, Payton Pritchard is likely to see extended minutes in a competitive first half and potentially score a three-pointer due to the offensive rhythm of the team.
- →TREND: Pritchard has been averaging 32.2 minutes per game in his last 5 outings, demonstrating that he is likely to be on the court for significant stretches, increasing his chances of making at least one three-pointer.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics coming off a loss and in a strong position within the playoff race, they will likely aim for a decisive victory against a struggling opponent, which could lead to Pritchard contributing to the scoreboard later in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available
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