Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Sam Hauser Over 7.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2900↓207%|+5600
player threes alternate
Sam Hauser Over 7.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+2900↓207%|+5600
player threes alternate
52.70
Composite Score
+51.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
92.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on Sam Hauser going Over 7.5 points fits well into the expected narrative of a high-scoring game, where the Celtics are projected to dominate the Nets. The favorable matchup and the likelihood of Hauser seeing extended minutes in a potential blowout support the bet, aligned with strong metrics showing he has the capacity to make threes. The Net EV of 0.51 indicates that there's moderate confidence the bookmaker has undervalued this bet given the circumstances.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 96%
Evidence
- →STATS: Sam Hauser has a solid 3-point shooting percentage of 40.0% over his last five games, highlighting his capability to hit at least one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are projected to have a significant scoring advantage in this matchup, with a spread of -18.0, suggesting plenty of opportunities for players to shoot, including Hauser.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the Celtics are expected to dominate the Nets, it’s likely that Hauser will get more open looks from beyond the arc as the game progresses, especially during garbage time if the game is a blowout.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Hauser has averaged 2.2 field goals made per game, with some of those likely coming from deep, further indicating a positive trend towards exceeding 0.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no reported injuries for the Celtics and a favorable game context against a struggling Nets team, Hauser is likely to receive considerable playing time (averaging 22.4 minutes in recent games), which bodes well for him hitting at least one three-pointer.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Sam Hauser has averaged only 6.6 points and 2.2 made field goals per game over his last 5 games, which suggests a low likelihood of him making even one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets' defense, despite their overall struggles, can still contest three-point shots effectively, particularly with their potential to focus on limiting Hauser's scoring opportunities in a high-stakes game.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the projected large spread of 18.0 favoring the Boston Celtics, the game may turn out to be a blowout, and Hauser could see reduced minutes in the second half, thus limiting his scoring chances, including threes.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Hauser has not shown a consistent role as a primary three-point shooter, averaging only 2.2 made field goals, which indicates that even when given an opportunity, he has not been efficient at getting three-point shots off.
- →SITUATIONAL: The fact that the Celtics are coming off a loss and will likely play with urgency suggest they could dominate the game early, leading to potential garbage time where Hauser's minutes would decrease, further hurting his chances of hitting over 0.5 made threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 96%
Evidence
- →STATS: Sam Hauser has a solid 3-point shooting percentage of 40.0% over his last five games, highlighting his capability to hit at least one three-pointer.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are projected to have a significant scoring advantage in this matchup, with a spread of -18.0, suggesting plenty of opportunities for players to shoot, including Hauser.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the Celtics are expected to dominate the Nets, it’s likely that Hauser will get more open looks from beyond the arc as the game progresses, especially during garbage time if the game is a blowout.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Hauser has averaged 2.2 field goals made per game, with some of those likely coming from deep, further indicating a positive trend towards exceeding 0.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With no reported injuries for the Celtics and a favorable game context against a struggling Nets team, Hauser is likely to receive considerable playing time (averaging 22.4 minutes in recent games), which bodes well for him hitting at least one three-pointer.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
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