Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Payton Pritchard Over 6.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1500↓138%|+5500
player threes alternate
Payton Pritchard Over 6.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1500↓138%|+5500
player threes alternate
51.20
Composite Score
+51.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In a matchup where the Boston Celtics are heavily favored against the Brooklyn Nets, the projected outcome suggests ample scoring opportunities for bench players like Payton Pritchard. Given that Pritchard is expected to see extended minutes and the Celtics will likely dominate the game, we anticipate him having multiple opportunities to hit threes. The Net EV of 0.51 indicates that this bet is underpriced, aligning with the narrative of Pritchard contributing to the scoring due to both the game conditions and his increased playing time.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 97%
Evidence
- →STATS: Payton Pritchard has a 3P percentage of 31.0% over the last 5 games, indicating he is capable of hitting the occasional three, especially within a limited threshold of 0.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are facing the Brooklyn Nets, who have a poor record (15-43), suggesting that the Celtics may run away with the game, leading to ample scoring opportunities for bench players like Pritchard.
- →NARRATIVE: In a game with a spread of 18 points in favor of the Celtics, Payton Pritchard is likely to see extended minutes in a competitive first half and potentially score a three-pointer due to the offensive rhythm of the team.
- →TREND: Pritchard has been averaging 32.2 minutes per game in his last 5 outings, demonstrating that he is likely to be on the court for significant stretches, increasing his chances of making at least one three-pointer.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics coming off a loss and in a strong position within the playoff race, they will likely aim for a decisive victory against a struggling opponent, which could lead to Pritchard contributing to the scoreboard later in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Payton Pritchard has shot only 31.0% from three-point range in his last 5 games, which indicates difficulty in making shots from beyond the arc.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets, although struggling this season, have players who can effectively contest outside shots, potentially limiting Pritchard's open looks.
- →NARRATIVE: Due to the large spread of -18.0, there is a high risk of a blowout, which may result in Pritchard being pulled early if the Celtics build a substantial lead, limiting his opportunities to shoot.
- →TREND: In his last 5 games, Pritchard has averaged only 0.4 three-pointers made per game, suggesting he has underperformed in this statistic recently.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Celtics come off a loss and may want to play their starters more strategically to avoid injury, leading to fewer minutes for Pritchard and limiting his chances to exceed 0.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 97%
Evidence
- →STATS: Payton Pritchard has a 3P percentage of 31.0% over the last 5 games, indicating he is capable of hitting the occasional three, especially within a limited threshold of 0.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are facing the Brooklyn Nets, who have a poor record (15-43), suggesting that the Celtics may run away with the game, leading to ample scoring opportunities for bench players like Pritchard.
- →NARRATIVE: In a game with a spread of 18 points in favor of the Celtics, Payton Pritchard is likely to see extended minutes in a competitive first half and potentially score a three-pointer due to the offensive rhythm of the team.
- →TREND: Pritchard has been averaging 32.2 minutes per game in his last 5 outings, demonstrating that he is likely to be on the court for significant stretches, increasing his chances of making at least one three-pointer.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics coming off a loss and in a strong position within the playoff race, they will likely aim for a decisive victory against a struggling opponent, which could lead to Pritchard contributing to the scoreboard later in the game.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data not available
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available