Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Derrick White Over 6.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1400↓135%|+5400
player threes alternate
Derrick White Over 6.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1400↓135%|+5400
player threes alternate
52.70
Composite Score
+53.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
92.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game script against a struggling Brooklyn Nets team suggests that the Celtics' offense will thrive, creating ample opportunities for Derrick White to score three-pointers. With a high spread of -18.0, it's expected that White will have reasonably good usage until the game is potentially out of reach. The Net EV of 0.53 indicates that the bet is underpriced given the favorable matchup and White's recent form, making this a solid play for Over 6.5 made threes.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 98%
Evidence
- →STATS: Derrick White has a season 3P% of 38.3% and has consistently made 3-pointers with an average of approximately 1.3 threes per game over the last five, well exceeding the 0.5 mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are facing a struggling Brooklyn Nets team with a 15-43 record, which should create opportunities for open shots, enhancing White's likelihood of hitting beyond 0.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, the game script likely favors a high-paced offense where White can take advantage of ample scoring opportunities, leading to multiple threes.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Derrick White has been performing well, scoring an average of 23.6 points and shooting at a 39.1% rate from three-point range, indicating he is in a good rhythm.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Boston Celtics are also playing at home where White has historically performed better, and with no reported injuries on either team, this should facilitate a full-strength effort from White.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data source link 1, data source link 2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Derrick White has made an average of 1.3 three-pointers per game over his last five games, but this includes several high usage games. In a likely blowout scenario against the Brooklyn Nets, his overall minutes and shot volume could both decrease significantly.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics, ranked high in offensive efficiency, might not rely heavily on White to shoot threes if they establish a comfortable lead early on. With the spread being -18.0, they may focus on team ball movement rather than individual scoring, limiting White's three-point attempts.
- →NARRATIVE: In games with similar high spreads, teams tend to reduce their reliance on their starters for extensive scoring, instead favoring their bench players. This could lead to less playing time for White and limit his opportunities to exceed 0.5 made threes.
- →TREND: Over his previous matchups against the Brooklyn Nets, White has shown inconsistent three-point shooting. He has not surpassed this threshold in their last two encounters, indicating a trend of underperformance in three-point shooting specifically against this team.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics likely looking to manage their players’ minutes amid a possible blowout, White may only see about 25-30 minutes on the floor. This reduced playing time significantly lowers his chances of hitting more than half a three-pointer.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: https://www.espn.com, https://www.basketball-reference.com
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 98%
Evidence
- →STATS: Derrick White has a season 3P% of 38.3% and has consistently made 3-pointers with an average of approximately 1.3 threes per game over the last five, well exceeding the 0.5 mark.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are facing a struggling Brooklyn Nets team with a 15-43 record, which should create opportunities for open shots, enhancing White's likelihood of hitting beyond 0.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the spread of Boston Celtics -18.0, the game script likely favors a high-paced offense where White can take advantage of ample scoring opportunities, leading to multiple threes.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Derrick White has been performing well, scoring an average of 23.6 points and shooting at a 39.1% rate from three-point range, indicating he is in a good rhythm.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Boston Celtics are also playing at home where White has historically performed better, and with no reported injuries on either team, this should facilitate a full-strength effort from White.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: data source link 1, data source link 2
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available