Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Nikola Vucevic Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1100↓414%|+1450
player threes alternate
Nikola Vucevic Over 3.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+1100↓414%|+1450
player threes alternate
50.50
Composite Score
+42.3%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
85.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Given the mixed evidence around Nikola Vucevic's ability to hit over 3.5 three-pointers, the game is expected to be a high-paced affair due to the Celtics' likely aggressive play style after a loss. However, Vucevic's recent performance, displaying an average of 0.0 three-pointers made in his last five games, raises significant doubts about his shooting volume. The Net EV of 0.42 suggests some underpricing, but the conflicting evidence and narrative surrounding his performance do not provide a strong enough case to make this bet with confidence.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Nikola Vucevic has a 3-point shooting percentage of 43.3% over the last 5 games, showing he is capable of making multiple 3-pointers in a game.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics often allow opposing centers to shoot from beyond the arc, which could create open looks for Vucevic in this match-up.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread is large at Boston Celtics -18.0, this game will likely see a significant number of possessions, leading to more opportunities for Vucevic to hit threes.
- →TREND: Vucevic has consistently played around 26.4 minutes in his last five games, which is ample time to generate at least 1 three-pointer given his recent shooting form.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics coming off a loss, they will likely play aggressively to re-establish dominance, potentially leading to a higher-paced game that favors Vucevic's 3-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: N/A
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 80%
Evidence
- →STATS: Vucevic averaged 0.0 three-pointers made in his last 5 games, indicating a poor performance from beyond the arc recently.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are a strong defensive team, which could limit Vucevic's opportunities to shoot from three-point range as they effectively defend against perimeter shots.
- →NARRATIVE: With a spread of -18 in favor of the Celtics, it's likely that the game will be a blowout, potentially leading to Vucevic spending less time on the court in garbage time, further decreasing his chances of hitting a three.
- →TREND: Vucevic's three-point percentage in the last 5 games has been 43.3%, but he has been consistently under 1 made three-pointer, suggesting that his shooting volume from beyond the arc is insufficient to hit this mark.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given that this is a high-stakes matchup for the Celtics as they vie for playoff positioning, the likelihood of Vucevic being rested or having his minutes limited in a potential blowout increases, reducing his opportunities for three-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 85%
Evidence
- →STATS: Nikola Vucevic has a 3-point shooting percentage of 43.3% over the last 5 games, showing he is capable of making multiple 3-pointers in a game.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics often allow opposing centers to shoot from beyond the arc, which could create open looks for Vucevic in this match-up.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the spread is large at Boston Celtics -18.0, this game will likely see a significant number of possessions, leading to more opportunities for Vucevic to hit threes.
- →TREND: Vucevic has consistently played around 26.4 minutes in his last five games, which is ample time to generate at least 1 three-pointer given his recent shooting form.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the Celtics coming off a loss, they will likely play aggressively to re-establish dominance, potentially leading to a higher-paced game that favors Vucevic's 3-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: N/A
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