Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Egor Demin Over 4.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+700↓148%|+2150
player threes alternate
Egor Demin Over 4.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+700↓148%|+2150
player threes alternate
51.20
Composite Score
+41.2%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
87.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
Egor Demin is positioned well to exceed 4.5 three-pointers in a game where the Celtics are likely to dominate against a struggling Nets team, possibly allowing Demin more shooting opportunities, particularly as the game progresses. The high-pressure environment and fast pace of the game should work in his favor, alongside his strong 3P percentage of 40.0% over his last five games. The Net EV of 0.41 confirms that the market is underestimating his potential, making this a compelling wager given the matchup and game script.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Egor Demin has a 3P percentage of 40.0% over his last five games and averages 0.8 made free throws per game, indicating his scoring capability from beyond the arc.
- →MATCHUP: The Nets have a weak perimeter defense, which should allow Demin more opportunities to shoot threes, especially in a high-pressure game against a strong opponent like the Celtics.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Celtics being heavily favored by a spread of -18.0, the game script likely points to the Celtics dominating, which could lead Demin to get increased minutes and opportunities to score late in the game.
- →TREND: In his last matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, Demin played 30 minutes and produced significant stats—including potentially contributing to his three-point total—indicating he can perform well against this team.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nets are on a six-game losing streak and facing a high-performing Celtics team, which often translates to a faster pace and more scoring opportunities, favoring Egor Demin to exceed 0.5 made threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 90%
Evidence
- →STATS: Egor Demin has a relatively low average minutes per game at 25.4, which limits his opportunities to hit more than 0.5 three-pointers in any given game.
- →MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are a strong defensive team, which may close out quickly on shooters, making it difficult for Demin to find open three-point opportunities.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the large spread of 18.0 in favor of the Boston Celtics, this game could easily become a blowout, potentially leading to Demin being pulled from the game early, limiting his chances to exceed 0.5 threes.
- →TREND: Demin’s recent performances against the Brooklyn Nets show inconsistency, including games where he made only 0-1 three-pointers, indicating an overall struggle to consistently hit beyond the arc.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Brooklyn Nets are currently on a six-game losing streak, which may affect their overall performance and cohesiveness as a team, ultimately impacting Demin's ability to convert three-point attempts.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 95%
Evidence
- →STATS: Egor Demin has a 3P percentage of 40.0% over his last five games and averages 0.8 made free throws per game, indicating his scoring capability from beyond the arc.
- →MATCHUP: The Nets have a weak perimeter defense, which should allow Demin more opportunities to shoot threes, especially in a high-pressure game against a strong opponent like the Celtics.
- →NARRATIVE: With the Celtics being heavily favored by a spread of -18.0, the game script likely points to the Celtics dominating, which could lead Demin to get increased minutes and opportunities to score late in the game.
- →TREND: In his last matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, Demin played 30 minutes and produced significant stats—including potentially contributing to his three-point total—indicating he can perform well against this team.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Nets are on a six-game losing streak and facing a high-performing Celtics team, which often translates to a faster pace and more scoring opportunities, favoring Egor Demin to exceed 0.5 made threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
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