Back to Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Sam Hauser Under 15.5 points rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
-107— stable
player points rebounds assists
Sam Hauser Under 15.5 points rebounds assists
💤 Noise Bet
-107— stable
player points rebounds assists
31.60
Composite Score
+9.0%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
33.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In this game between the Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics, it's projected that the Celtics will dominate, likely resulting in limited minutes for Sam Hauser, especially if they gain a large lead. With Hauser's recent averages falling far below the 15.5 mark for combined points, rebounds, and assists, coupled with the narrative of reduced player involvement during blowouts, this bet on the Under aligns with the expected game script. The Net EV of 0.09 suggests the market may indeed be underestimating the implications of a potential blowout and Hauser's limited role in it.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Sam Hauser's verified averages for the last five games show he is scoring only 6.6 points per game, well below the threshold of 15.5 when combined with rebounds and assists.
- →MATCHUP: The large spread of 18.0 suggests a potential blowout where Hauser may see limited minutes if the Boston Celtics extend their lead, negatively impacting his chances to accumulate stats.
- →NARRATIVE: A key narrative indicates that in such mismatched games, bench players often play fewer minutes, thereby reducing opportunities for Hauser to exceed 15.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Hauser has underperformed, averaging 6.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.0 assists, which totals just 11.4 combined, emphasizing the likelihood he will not hit the over.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are facing a struggling Nets team with a 15-43 record, which could lead to a less competitive game environment where the starters do not play heavy minutes, further limiting Hauser's potential output.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 10%
Evidence
- →STATS: Sam Hauser is averaging 10.2 points, rebounds, and assists combined in his last five games, which is just shy of the threshold but shows potential for improvement given the large spread of the game.
- →MATCHUP: The Brooklyn Nets are struggling significantly this season with a 15-43 record, which could lead to a high possession game benefiting Hauser's opportunities for scoring and assists.
- →NARRATIVE: Given that the game spread is Boston Celtics -18.0, it suggests a likely blowout scenario where the Celtics may rest their stars early, increasing Hauser's minutes and potential usage in garbage time.
- →TREND: In his last five games, Hauser has been increasing his rebounds, averaging 3.8 boards, which indicates a rising trend in his overall contribution to the game.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are coming into this game after a loss, creating motivation to perform well against a lower-ranked team like the Nets. This could lead to an aggressive offensive strategy that allows Hauser more involvement.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 35%
Evidence
- →STATS: Sam Hauser's verified averages for the last five games show he is scoring only 6.6 points per game, well below the threshold of 15.5 when combined with rebounds and assists.
- →MATCHUP: The large spread of 18.0 suggests a potential blowout where Hauser may see limited minutes if the Boston Celtics extend their lead, negatively impacting his chances to accumulate stats.
- →NARRATIVE: A key narrative indicates that in such mismatched games, bench players often play fewer minutes, thereby reducing opportunities for Hauser to exceed 15.5 points, rebounds, and assists.
- →TREND: Over the last five games, Hauser has underperformed, averaging 6.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.0 assists, which totals just 11.4 combined, emphasizing the likelihood he will not hit the over.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are facing a struggling Nets team with a 15-43 record, which could lead to a less competitive game environment where the starters do not play heavy minutes, further limiting Hauser's potential output.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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