Derrick White Over 6.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+117— stable

player assists

Derrick White Over 6.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

+117— stable

player assists

23.40

Composite Score

-3.6%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

13.40

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

In this matchup, the significant point spread of -18 in favor of the Celtics suggests a likely blowout game script, which could severely limit Derrick White's playing time and opportunities to accumulate assists. While he has the potential to perform under favorable conditions against a struggling Nets defense, the risk of reduced minutes in a blowout scenario, combined with his recent trend of failing to exceed 5 assists, makes this wager less appealing. The negative Net EV of -0.04 reflects that this bet is overpriced in the market considering the circumstances, leading to a prudent decision to pass.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Derrick White is currently averaging 4.8 assists per game over the last five games, but his high usage rate and increased scoring may allow for more assist opportunities as he operates as a primary ball-handler.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics face a struggling Brooklyn Nets team, which has a low win percentage (0.258) and is on a 6-game losing streak, making it likely that White will have opportunities to distribute effectively against a vulnerable defense.
→NARRATIVE: Given the Celtics are favored by 18 points, the game script suggests White will play a significant role in facilitating high scoring, especially in a win where he can focus on distributing rather than just scoring.
→TREND: In his last game against Brooklyn, White played 38 minutes and contributed significantly, indicating he has the opportunity and potential to exceed his normal assist average given the matchup and game dynamics.
→SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are currently 1st in the Atlantic Division, with a potential playoff seed in play, which should motivate White and his teammates to perform at a high level, particularly against a low-performing team like the Nets.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 80%

Evidence

→STATS: Derrick White has averaged only 4.8 assists per game this season, and his recent form shows he has not reached 6.5 assists in any of his last five games.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics are heavily favored by 18 points, which increases the risk of a blowout that could limit White's playing time and assist opportunities if the game gets out of hand.
→NARRATIVE: Given the large point spread and the expected dominant performance from the Celtics, the game script may favor fewer assists as they may control the pace and scoring more selectively.
→TREND: In White's last five games, his assist production has stagnated, failing to exceed 5 assists in any single game, highlighting an underwhelming trend when compared to the 6.5 mark.
→SITUATIONAL: The large spread and the Celtics' overall strong performance (38-20 record) could lead to them resting players in the second half, significantly reducing White's minutes and opportunities to accumulate assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4288535/derrick-white, https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2024.html

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 65%

Evidence

→STATS: Derrick White is currently averaging 4.8 assists per game over the last five games, but his high usage rate and increased scoring may allow for more assist opportunities as he operates as a primary ball-handler.
→MATCHUP: The Boston Celtics face a struggling Brooklyn Nets team, which has a low win percentage (0.258) and is on a 6-game losing streak, making it likely that White will have opportunities to distribute effectively against a vulnerable defense.
→NARRATIVE: Given the Celtics are favored by 18 points, the game script suggests White will play a significant role in facilitating high scoring, especially in a win where he can focus on distributing rather than just scoring.
→TREND: In his last game against Brooklyn, White played 38 minutes and contributed significantly, indicating he has the opportunity and potential to exceed his normal assist average given the matchup and game dynamics.
→SITUATIONAL: The Celtics are currently 1st in the Atlantic Division, with a potential playoff seed in play, which should motivate White and his teammates to perform at a high level, particularly against a low-performing team like the Nets.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: url1, url2