Back to Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons

Ausar Thompson Under 2.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

-108↑1%|-1

player assists

Ausar Thompson Under 2.5 assists

💤 Noise Bet

-108↑1%|-1

player assists

30.90

Composite Score

+8.0%

Net EV

50.00

Narrative Fit

32.00

Market Divergence

🧪 SAL's Synthesis

Given the robust defensive capabilities of the Cleveland Cavaliers and their ability to limit assist opportunities, Thompson's chances of surpassing 2.5 assists appear diminished. Additionally, the narrative surrounding the game suggests a potential focus on isolation plays due to the high point total, which typically stifles assist volumes. The Net EV of 0.08 indicates a slight edge, reinforcing the belief that the market may have underpriced this wager based on the matchup dynamics.

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged only 1.6 assists per game over the last five games, which is below the 2.5 assists threshold, indicating significant difficulty in surpassing this mark.
→MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers boast one of the league's stronger defenses, which could limit Thompson's opportunities to create assists, making it tougher for him to exceed 2.5.
→NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 227.5, the expectations for high-scoring might lead to more isolation plays rather than ball movement, which often suppresses assist totals.
→TREND: In his last matchups against the Cavaliers, Thompson recorded 2 assists in a game where he played significant minutes but still fell short of 3, showing a consistency in underperformance in this category.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that Detroit is currently a strong team and might dominate the game, if they pull ahead significantly, Thompson's minutes could be reduced in garbage time, further jeopardizing his chances of exceeding 2.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2

🔴 Anti Agent Case

Conf: 15%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged only 1.6 assists per game over his last five games but seen significant minutes with an average of 21.4 per game, suggesting an opportunity to increase his assist total.
→MATCHUP: The Detroit Pistons' defensive scheme, which allows a higher number of assists against opposing guards, provides a favorable environment for Thompson to exploit his passing opportunities in this matchup.
→NARRATIVE: With the high game total of 227.5 points, the expected pace favors increased possessions, which typically translates to more assist opportunities for ball handlers like Thompson.
→TREND: In the last meeting against the Pistons, Thompson had 4 assists, indicating he can succeed against this defense when given ample playing time.
→SITUATIONAL: The game features the Pistons on a win streak (W1) and with a strong record of 43-14, which may encourage a competitive pace and force the Pistons to push offensive contributions, leading to Thompson's involvement.

Thesis: strong

Market: agree

Sources: ESPN, NBA Stats

🟢 Pro Agent Case

Conf: 40%

Evidence

→STATS: Ausar Thompson has averaged only 1.6 assists per game over the last five games, which is below the 2.5 assists threshold, indicating significant difficulty in surpassing this mark.
→MATCHUP: The Cleveland Cavaliers boast one of the league's stronger defenses, which could limit Thompson's opportunities to create assists, making it tougher for him to exceed 2.5.
→NARRATIVE: With the game total set at 227.5, the expectations for high-scoring might lead to more isolation plays rather than ball movement, which often suppresses assist totals.
→TREND: In his last matchups against the Cavaliers, Thompson recorded 2 assists in a game where he played significant minutes but still fell short of 3, showing a consistency in underperformance in this category.
→SITUATIONAL: Given that Detroit is currently a strong team and might dominate the game, if they pull ahead significantly, Thompson's minutes could be reduced in garbage time, further jeopardizing his chances of exceeding 2.5 assists.

Thesis: strong

Market: strongly disagree

Sources: url1, url2