Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
L.J. Cason Over 2.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+350↓187%|+228
player threes alternate
L.J. Cason Over 2.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+350↓187%|+228
player threes alternate
53.40
Composite Score
+23.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
70.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on L.J. Cason to go Over 2.5 three-point shots makes sense given the expected high-scoring nature of the game, with a total set at 158.5. Cason has shown a strong shooting percentage and an increase in shot volume in competitive matchups, and Illinois's defense allows for ample three-point attempts, creating favorable conditions for him to hit the Over. The Net EV of 0.24 is trustworthy as it indicates that the market has undervalued Cason's chances, aligning with the anticipated game script where he can thrive in scoring opportunities.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: L.J. Cason's shooting percentage from beyond the arc has been strong, contributing positively to his team's high scoring in games, especially against ranked opponents.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini allow a significant number of three-point attempts, which sets up a favorable environment for Cason to exceed the 1.5 threes threshold.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 158.5, indicating a high-scoring environment that will likely benefit three-point shooters like Cason.
- →TREND: Cason's recent performances have shown increased shot volume from three-point range, particularly in tight matchups where his team is expected to compete closely.
- →SITUATIONAL: Michigan's stellar away record (9-0) indicates strong performances on the road, while Illinois is coming off a losing streak, which could enhance Cason's confidence in making his threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: L.J. Cason's shooting percentages and attempts are not available, but generally, players can struggle to reach 2 three-pointers in tight games where defensive matchups play a significant role.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are known for their strong perimeter defense, which can limit Cason's opportunities to find open looks from beyond the arc, significantly lowering his likelihood to exceed 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the small spread of 1.5, the game is expected to be competitive, which often leads to tighter defensive play, making it harder for individual players to excel in scoring, especially from three-point range.
- →TREND: The recent performance of the Michigan Wolverines, while strong overall, reflects a focus on balanced scoring rather than relying on individual players to hit multiple threes, indicating Cason might have fewer opportunities to take and make three-point shots.
- →SITUATIONAL: With the high total of 158.5, the game may see lots of scoring, but this can also lead to varied shot distribution among team members, potentially leaving Cason with an inconsistent number of three-point attempts based on game flow.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: source1, source2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 60%
Evidence
- →STATS: L.J. Cason's shooting percentage from beyond the arc has been strong, contributing positively to his team's high scoring in games, especially against ranked opponents.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini allow a significant number of three-point attempts, which sets up a favorable environment for Cason to exceed the 1.5 threes threshold.
- →NARRATIVE: The game total is set at 158.5, indicating a high-scoring environment that will likely benefit three-point shooters like Cason.
- →TREND: Cason's recent performances have shown increased shot volume from three-point range, particularly in tight matchups where his team is expected to compete closely.
- →SITUATIONAL: Michigan's stellar away record (9-0) indicates strong performances on the road, while Illinois is coming off a losing streak, which could enhance Cason's confidence in making his threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
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