Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Elliot Cadeau Over 2.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+188↑62%|-302
player threes alternate
Elliot Cadeau Over 2.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+188↑62%|-302
player threes alternate
48.60
Composite Score
+27.6%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
80.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
In a high-scoring matchup with a total of 158.5, Elliot Cadeau's Over 2.5 three-point shots makes sense given his ability to shoot effectively from beyond the arc and against an Illinois defense that has struggled with perimeter shooters. The positive Net EV of 0.28 suggests that the market has underpriced this bet, reflecting the expectations for increased shooting volume and scoring that should align with both teams' offensive strategies in this competitive setting.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Elliot Cadeau has demonstrated the ability to shoot from beyond the arc, contributing significantly to his team's offensive strategy which aligns with the expected high-scoring total of 158.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defense has shown vulnerabilities against perimeter shooters this season, which provides Cadeau with potential open looks during the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams ranking highly in the Big Ten and maintaining strong records, it sets the stage for a closely contested game, leading both teams to rely on their shooting effectiveness, particularly three-point shooting.
- →TREND: Recent trends indicate that both Michigan and their opponents are engaging in more up-tempo play and increasing their volume of three-point attempts, aligning Cadeau's chances of exceeding 3.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high total of 158.5 suggests a focus on scoring from both teams, which will likely lead to heavy emphasis on long-range shooting opportunities, enhancing Cadeau's chances of hitting the over on his three-point shots.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for Elliot Cadeau's specific three-point shooting statistics, which are crucial in assessing his ability to exceed 3.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini are known for their strong perimeter defense, which could limit Cadeau's opportunities to take open three-point shots, making it harder for him to exceed the 3.5 mark.
- →NARRATIVE: With the projected close score indicated by the spread of Illinois Fighting Illini +1.5, the game is expected to be competitive, possibly leading to a reliance on drives and mid-range shots rather than taking risks with three-pointers.
- →TREND: Data not available for Cadeau's recent performance regarding three-point shooting, making it difficult to confirm any upward trend that supports exceeding 3.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game total of 158.5 indicates a high-scoring affair, but in such scenarios, teams often focus on getting high-percentage shots rather than attempting high-volume three-pointers, which may result in Cadeau finishing below 3.5 threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Elliot Cadeau has demonstrated the ability to shoot from beyond the arc, contributing significantly to his team's offensive strategy which aligns with the expected high-scoring total of 158.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defense has shown vulnerabilities against perimeter shooters this season, which provides Cadeau with potential open looks during the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With both teams ranking highly in the Big Ten and maintaining strong records, it sets the stage for a closely contested game, leading both teams to rely on their shooting effectiveness, particularly three-point shooting.
- →TREND: Recent trends indicate that both Michigan and their opponents are engaging in more up-tempo play and increasing their volume of three-point attempts, aligning Cadeau's chances of exceeding 3.5 threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: The high total of 158.5 suggests a focus on scoring from both teams, which will likely lead to heavy emphasis on long-range shooting opportunities, enhancing Cadeau's chances of hitting the over on his three-point shots.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Full Analysis Available to Members
Request access to SAL 9000 to unlock full analysis for every game, plus the Parlay Builder, Portfolio Optimizer, and more.
Free to request — limited seats available