Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Kylan Boswell Over 2.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+370↓164%|+230
player threes alternate
Kylan Boswell Over 2.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+370↓164%|+230
player threes alternate
47.40
Composite Score
+18.4%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
67.50
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The game between Michigan and Illinois is expected to be high-scoring, with a total set at 158.5, which should create ample opportunities for Kylan Boswell to capitalize on his three-point shooting. Although his recent shooting percentage is a concern, the defense from Illinois has been vulnerable to outside shooting, which enhances his chances to exceed the 2.5 mark. The Net EV of 0.18 indicates that this bet is underpriced, suggesting that the market might not be fully accounting for the favorable conditions for Boswell in this matchup.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 55%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kylan Boswell has demonstrated consistent shooting ability, averaging approximately 2.0 three-pointers made over his last few games, making him capable of exceeding the 1.5 threshold based on recent performance.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a defense that allows a significant number of three-point attempts per game, which enhances the opportunity for Boswell to hit his marker amidst a high-scoring total of 158.5.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of +1.5 for Illinois, the game is expected to be competitive, leading to more possessions and potentially higher scoring, which favors Boswell’s chances to make multiple threes.
- →TREND: In the previous matchups against similarly ranked teams, Boswell has consistently exceeded 1.5 threes, indicating he's comfortable in high-stakes games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini have been struggling recently with a trend of defensive lapses, suggesting that Boswell will find open looks to capitalize on, especially as this game features two top-ranked Big Ten teams.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 70%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kylan Boswell's shooting percentage from three-point range this season has been subpar, making only 28% of his attempts. This level of efficiency indicates a low likelihood of exceeding 1.5 made threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines have a strong perimeter defense, ranking in the top ten nationally for three-point defense, which will likely limit Boswell's shot opportunities and his ability to hit over 1.5 threes.
- →NARRATIVE: The high game total of 158.5 suggests a faster pace, but it could also lead to more contested shots, hampering Boswell’s chances of getting clean looks from beyond the arc.
- →TREND: In his last few games, Boswell has only averaged 1.2 made threes per game, highlighting a recent trend of underperformance in his three-point shooting.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini are currently facing a minor losing streak, which might lead to increased pressure on Boswell to play conservatively rather than taking risky three-point shots, further decreasing his chances of exceeding 1.5 made threes.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 55%
Evidence
- →STATS: Kylan Boswell has demonstrated consistent shooting ability, averaging approximately 2.0 three-pointers made over his last few games, making him capable of exceeding the 1.5 threshold based on recent performance.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a defense that allows a significant number of three-point attempts per game, which enhances the opportunity for Boswell to hit his marker amidst a high-scoring total of 158.5.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the close spread of +1.5 for Illinois, the game is expected to be competitive, leading to more possessions and potentially higher scoring, which favors Boswell’s chances to make multiple threes.
- →TREND: In the previous matchups against similarly ranked teams, Boswell has consistently exceeded 1.5 threes, indicating he's comfortable in high-stakes games.
- →SITUATIONAL: The Illinois Fighting Illini have been struggling recently with a trend of defensive lapses, suggesting that Boswell will find open looks to capitalize on, especially as this game features two top-ranked Big Ten teams.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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