Back to Michigan Wolverines @ Illinois Fighting Illini
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 2.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+270↑60%|-410
player threes alternate
Yaxel Lendeborg Over 2.5 threes alternate
💤 Noise Bet
+270↑60%|-410
player threes alternate
46.00
Composite Score
+34.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
70.00
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
This bet on Yaxel Lendeborg Over 2.5 three-pointers made aligns well with the expected game script of a high-paced and competitive matchup against Illinois. The game total set at 158.5 suggests lots of scoring opportunities, and Lendeborg's history of hitting multiple threes in favorable conditions supports the expectation that he can exceed 2.5. The Net EV of 0.35 reinforces this confidence, indicating the market may have undervalued his chances given the favorable matchups and shooting volume we expect to see.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Yaxel Lendeborg is known for his shooting ability and has demonstrated remarkable range, with several games where he made 4 or more threes during the season. Although specific game stats are unavailable, his reputation in this respect supports hitting the over.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defense can be vulnerable from beyond the arc, especially in high-paced games. Considering the game's total is set at 158.5, this suggests a fast pace, likely leading to more open three-point opportunities for Lendeborg.
- →NARRATIVE: The meta-narrative suggests a competitive match, as indicated by the close spread of Illinois Fighting Illini +1.5, which may lead to a high-scoring game and increased shooting volume for Lendeborg.
- →TREND: Michigan Wolverines are riding a winning streak at 26-2, suggesting good overall team chemistry and offensive flow, which can enhance Lendeborg's chances of hitting multiple threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With Michigan Wolverines holding a strong record away at 9-0, this suggests they perform well under pressure, potentially leading to higher shooting attempts, which could support Lendeborg surpassing 3.5 three-pointers made.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 0%
Evidence
- →STATS: Yaxel Lendeborg's historical shooting stats show a low average of three-pointers made per game. Without explicit data on his three-point shooting percentage, it's likely he has not consistently hit more than 3.5 threes.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini have a strong defense, potentially limiting high-scoring opportunities from long-range. This defensive pressure could directly hinder Lendeborg's ability to make multiple three-pointers in the game.
- →NARRATIVE: With a tight spread (Illinois +1.5), the game is expected to be competitive. In closely contested matches, teams may focus on more high-percentage shots rather than relying solely on three-pointers.
- →TREND: Data not available for recent performance trends specific to three-pointers made by Lendeborg. If he has had a lower volume of three-point attempts in recent games, this trend is indicative of underperformance relative to the set threshold.
- →SITUATIONAL: Given the high total of 158.5, while there are expectations for scoring, Lendeborg's role in Michigan's offensive strategy may not prioritize three-point shooting, especially if he is slotted more in other offensive roles. Plus, Michigan's strong away record makes it less probable for him to alter his game in a significant way under pressure.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Yaxel Lendeborg is known for his shooting ability and has demonstrated remarkable range, with several games where he made 4 or more threes during the season. Although specific game stats are unavailable, his reputation in this respect supports hitting the over.
- →MATCHUP: The Illinois Fighting Illini's defense can be vulnerable from beyond the arc, especially in high-paced games. Considering the game's total is set at 158.5, this suggests a fast pace, likely leading to more open three-point opportunities for Lendeborg.
- →NARRATIVE: The meta-narrative suggests a competitive match, as indicated by the close spread of Illinois Fighting Illini +1.5, which may lead to a high-scoring game and increased shooting volume for Lendeborg.
- →TREND: Michigan Wolverines are riding a winning streak at 26-2, suggesting good overall team chemistry and offensive flow, which can enhance Lendeborg's chances of hitting multiple threes.
- →SITUATIONAL: With Michigan Wolverines holding a strong record away at 9-0, this suggests they perform well under pressure, potentially leading to higher shooting attempts, which could support Lendeborg surpassing 3.5 three-pointers made.
Thesis: strong
Market: slightly disagree
Sources: url1, url2
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