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David Mirkovic Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+145— stable
player assists
David Mirkovic Under 1.5 assists
💤 Noise Bet
+145— stable
player assists
29.00
Composite Score
+5.7%
Net EV
50.00
Narrative Fit
26.70
Market Divergence
🧪 SAL's Synthesis
The bet on David Mirkovic Under 1.5 assists does not align well with the expected narrative of a high-paced game, which typically results in increased assist opportunities. While the quantitative analysis suggests this bet has a slight positive EV, the qualitative evidence from the anti agent strongly indicates Mirkovic’s involvement in playmaking duties, especially in a competitive matchup at home. Given these factors, the potential for him to exceed the assist line appears greater than the odds suggest, making this a pass rather than a strong bet.
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for player-specific assists, making it difficult to gauge Mirkovic's likelihood of exceeding 1.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines are a strong defensive team, which may limit Illinois's offensive efficiency and Mirkovic's opportunities to assist.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the expected high pace of the game (total of 158.5), it may lead to more isolation plays, which limits assist opportunities for Mirkovic as he may not be the primary ball-handler.
- →TREND: Data not available to indicate recent performance trends for Mirkovic's assists specifically.
- →SITUATIONAL: Mirkovic plays on an Illinois team that is currently on a one-game losing streak; this can negatively impact team chemistries and reduce assist opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
🔴 Anti Agent Case
Conf: 30%
Evidence
- →STATS: David Mirkovic is noted for being involved in the playmaking duties for Illinois, which increases his chance to register assists in a high-paced game with a total of 158.5.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines have a solid offensive unit, which will require Mirkovic to facilitate more often against their defense, potentially resulting in higher assist numbers.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the competitive nature of the matchup, with both teams vying for position in the Big Ten, we can expect the game to be closely contested, leading to Mirkovic needing to contribute more in assists.
- →TREND: Illinois is currently on a losing streak (L1), which typically drives players like Mirkovic to step up and utilize their passing skills to change the team's fortunes, reflecting an increase in assists.
- →SITUATIONAL: The game being played at home for Illinois (13-2) may heighten Mirkovic's performance expectations, as players often elevate their game in front of a home crowd, thus increasing the likelihood of him exceeding 1.5 assists.
Thesis: strong
Market: agree
Sources: url1, url2
🟢 Pro Agent Case
Conf: 25%
Evidence
- →STATS: Data not available for player-specific assists, making it difficult to gauge Mirkovic's likelihood of exceeding 1.5 assists.
- →MATCHUP: The Michigan Wolverines are a strong defensive team, which may limit Illinois's offensive efficiency and Mirkovic's opportunities to assist.
- →NARRATIVE: Given the expected high pace of the game (total of 158.5), it may lead to more isolation plays, which limits assist opportunities for Mirkovic as he may not be the primary ball-handler.
- →TREND: Data not available to indicate recent performance trends for Mirkovic's assists specifically.
- →SITUATIONAL: Mirkovic plays on an Illinois team that is currently on a one-game losing streak; this can negatively impact team chemistries and reduce assist opportunities.
Thesis: strong
Market: strongly disagree
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